The countries of the South China Sea area prepare for a Naval War

Escalating tensions in the South China Sea has resulted in several countries in that region to strengthen their naval capabilities, as demonstrated by some facts:

In May 2019, Philippine Navy announced its plans to buy 25-30 warships including destroyers to modernize and increase its existing fleet by 2030.

In December 2019, China announced its plans to build two guided-missile Type 055 and Type 052D destroyers that will be ready for battle service by 2021.

In January 2020, China presented its first fourth-generation guided-missile destroyer "Nanchang" intended be used as aircraft carrier escort.

In March 2020, Japan announced its plans to build its second Maya class destroyer that will be equipped with the Aegis defense system and will exhibit ballistic missile defense capability. The first Maya class destroyer was launched in 2019 and it is expected to be commissioned in a few months.

In May 2020, Australia also concluded its Air Warfare Destroyer program by commissioning the Hobart Class guided missile Aegis capable HMAS Sydney V destroyer. Australia is expected to purchase defense systems and other technological support worth billions to support the upgradation of the latest fleet.

Indian Navy has under construction four 7300 tons destroyers at Mazagon Docks in Mumbai, and the Indian government has signed a deal to acquire advanced sensor and weapon systems package for nearly USD 800 million to arm these under-construction warships.

Some other small nations with limited capabilities in shipbuilding are purchasing destroyers from other markets such as China, Europe, Japan, South Korea or United States.

DEFCON 5

There are currently no imminent nuclear threats against the United States at this time, but let us go summarize the today-and-now status quo regarding the main actors on the main stages of a possible WW3

UNITED STATES vs RUSSIA

As the United States continues to consider withdrawing from the intermediate range nuclear weapon treaty, Russia has warned of an “efficient response” if the United States deploys intermediate-range missiles in Europe, implicity threatening any country that hosts U.S. nuclear weapons.

INDIA vs PAKISTAN and CHINA

• India’s first domestically built nuclear-powered submarine has completed its first patrol in a signal to both Pakistan and China and now says its nuclear triad is complete.
• China has begun construction on third aircraft carrier

IRAN

Iran has test-fired a medium range ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple warheads.

NORTH KOREA vs UNITED STATES and SOUTH KOREA

• North Korea has threatens to restart nuclear weapons programme if U.S. does not provide sanctions relief.
• It must be noted that North Korea has continued to expand operations at its main nuclear site and that South Korea spy agency have reported that North Korea is continuing to miniaturize nuclear warheads.
• United States say it may resume large-scale joint military exercises with South Korea if there continues to be no tangible progress on the denuclearization of North Korea.

RUSSIA vs UKRAINE

• Russia has attacked and captured Ukraine vessels in the Sea of Azov.
• While Ukraine makes noises of war, no other country seems to be moving in that direction.
• The United States has stated that the current crises is an European problem, indicating that the U.S. will not get involved.
• Additionally, Germany has refused a request to get involved.
• This does not mean that escalation is not possible.
• This is highly dependent on what Russia will do and how NATO will respond. 

Poland, Romania and Spain, targets of russian missiles

Poland, Romania and Spain have volunteered to take on elements of an American missile shield, despite Russia's firm opposition to US missile defense near its borders in Europe, and the constant warning of Russia regarding that states who decide to harbor elements of such defensive system will be target of the russian missiles.

The relationship between the United States and Russia are currently tense, especially in Europe, with the respective allies of countries that repeatedly meet pulling, buzzing and intercepting the other aircraft over the Baltic Sea in June. If that were not enough, it is rumored that US President Donald Trump would be considering to abandon the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty (INF).

The agreement restrains US and Russian missiles within ranges of 500 to 5.500 kilometers, but Republicans want to close the deal to develop new missiles, arguing that Russia would already done the same. Viktor Shamanov, head of the Defense Committee in the Russian lower house and leading military expert for the United Russia party, addressed the issue today: "We have to wait for a US decision, but I think withdrawing would be worse for everyone because This would provoke an arms race in which nobody will be winner ".

¿Why Japan is wary of North Korea's Musudan missiles?

North Korea has recently claimed a series of breakthroughs in its push to build a long-range nuclear missile that can strike the American mainland. If the North's claims about the sixth Musudan launch are true, it would pose a threat to the USA military base in Guam, where troops that would be sent to the Korean Peninsula if conflict broke out are based, and also possibly a nuclear threat. It explains in part North Korea's tenacious testing of the Musudan missile. (Read more)

El SMC apuesta por la Manufactura Aditiva

El U.S. Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC) ha firmado con la compaía UES Inc. (Dayton, OH) un contrato por valor de 2.9 millones de dólares (financiado por el Fondo de Innovación Rápida de la USAF) para investigar y desarrollar nuevas tecnologías de Manufactura Digital Aditiva, susceptibles de ser aplicadas en el desarrollo de nuevos y más avanzados sistemas de misiles. El UES contará para este proyecto con la colaboración de otras empresas del sector aeroespacial y militar, entre las que destacan Faraday Technology Inc. y Aerojet Rocketdyne, ambas con sede en California.

Iran tensa la cuerda

Esta semana han aparecido nuevas imágenes tomadas por el satélite Eros-B, sobre las instalaciones del Centro de Lanzamiento Espacial "Imam Khomeini"

Las imágenes carecerían de importancia si no fuese porque, segun algunos expertos, parece que se aprecia lo que podría ser un misil de largo alcance, capaz de alcanzar objetivos más allá de Europa.

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Europe, the old chessboard

Further deployment of America’s global anti-ballistic missile defense poses a threat to the US and those European countries that agreed to host it, because it builds up a dangerous illusion of invincibility, Putin said in the state of the nation address.

The European Phased Adaptive Approach, centerpiece of the US missile defense shield in Europe, implies deployment of Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers, all of which are fitted with the Aegis weapon and radar system, interceptor batteries in Poland and Romania, radar in Turkey, and a command center at Ramstein, Germany, a US Air Force base. 

“This constitutes a threat not only to the security of Russia, but to the whole world, in view of the possible destabilization of the strategic balance of powers. I believe this is dangerous for the US itself, as it creates a dangerous illusion of invulnerability and reinforces the tendency of unilateral, often ill-considered decisions and additional risks,” Putin said.

Russia says dissatisfied

Russian Deputy Defence Minister Anatoly Antonov said Russia had voiced concerns over planned U.S. ground-launched arms tests next year in Romania and in 2018 in Poland, which he said the U.S. side assured him would only use anti-rocket defences and would not fall foul of the treaty.

Relations between the two countries are at their lowest since the Cold War because of Russia's role in the crisis in Ukraine, and both Moscow and Washington question the other's commitment to the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty.

Russia argues that Washington's use of drones and other intermediate-range arms amounts to a violation of the treaty and has said that planned U.S. weapons tests in Romania and Poland may also breach the agreement. Also, Russia said on Thursday it was dissatisfied with talks held with U.S. officials to address concerns that Moscow had violated a Cold War-era arms control agreement by testing a ground-launched cruise missile.

About the treaty, Anatoly Antonov said last month Moscow was committed to the treaty but President Vladimir Putin has questioned whether it meets Russia's interests, bearing on mind the INF treaty eliminated nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with a range of 500-5.500 km (300-3.400 miles).

NATO Prepares East Europe Rapid Response

NATO is preparing a rapid response to the Ukraine crisis that would allow it to deploy troops swiftly to reinforce eastern Europe and dissuade Russia from further destabilising the region, the alliance chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Wednesday.

Mitsubishi gets greenlight

The Japanese government on Thursday gave the green light to export a Japanese-made missile component to the United States, marking the first such decision since the country eased restrictions on arms exports this April, local media reported.

Japan's National Security Council (NSC), a body set up under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to speed up decision-making on defense and diplomacy, also decided the same day to conduct joint research with Britain on air-to-air missiles, said Japan's Kyodo News Agency. Thursday's approval will allow Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. to export a high-performance sensor to a U.S. defense company, which will use it in the Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) missile defense system to be exported to Qatar.

The sensor is a key component of an infrared device at the tip of the missile that identifies and tracks targets, the Nikkei business daily reported in an earlier report. Regarding the joint missile research with Britain, Japan eyes an agreement on the occasion of a "two-plus-two" meeting of their respective foreign and defense ministers that may be held in Britain as early as September. The missile in question is the Meteor air-to-air missile currently under development between Britain and several European countries, including France and Germany. It could be loaded on F- 35 stealth fighter jets that Japan's Self-Defense Forces are planning to introduce, said Kyodo News.

DGA Chief: Airbus-Safran Joint Venture Must Exclude Missile Work

The head of the French arms-procurement agency, DGA, on July 1 warned French industry that their ballistic missile and nuclear deterrent teams, often in the same offices as the launch vehicle engineers, will not be permitted to join the proposed new consolidation of French and European rocket builders. (Read more)

22nd June: Alea Iacta Est?

Intelligence reports are predicting that Iran and North Korea could develop and test an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States by 2015. Given the preceeding GMD test failures, the test will be watched closely as after all, just the GMD System -based at Fort Greely, Alaska and Vandenberg Air Force Base in California- stands between a long-range missile attack from North Korea or Iran on the U.S. homeland.

Over the last decade, the system has failed eight of 15 intercept tests, including the last three in a row, despite the fact that the tests were "highly scripted". ¿What means "highly scripted"? It means the GMD system operators knew ahead of time where and when the target would be launched, and exactly what it looked like. But in a a real war, the surprise factor is the key factor to the success, and the enemy knows it. This is why the GMD system test is so important to maintain the peace in the world. If America fall, Europe will be the next to fall. And then the rest of the world will fall.

US to send first element of anti-missile system in Europe to Romania

The first components of a US-made anti-missile system are being assembled in New Jersey ahead of their shipping to Romania in a few weeks.

In about a year, all the pieces will be reassembled to become the first operational shore-based element of the European Phased Adaptive Approach anti-missile system. According to DefenseNews, the system is the first land-based version of the Aegis combat system, a sophisticated collection of phased-array radars, fire control directors, computers and missiles.

The deployment of the Aegis Ashore system in Romania to provide ballistic missile coverage for southern Europe represents the second phase of the European Phased Adaptive Approach, and will also use enhanced SM-3 Block IB interceptor missiles.

Source: http://www.indiandefence.com/forums/u-s-europe/43063-americans-send-first-element-anti-missile-system-europe-romania.html#ixzz2tkRu3kLl

¿No need for European MDS?

There's no need for a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe if the Iranian nuclear threat subsides, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Monday.

NATO is currently rolling out its new Europe-wide missile defense shield, which will include two interceptor bases close to the Russian border in Romania and Poland, with the first of the first ground missiles becoming operational in 2015. The bases will be able to shoot down short and medium-range ballistic missiles.

Lavrov recently called missile defense a “burning issue” in Moscow-Washington relations, and said that Russia will soften its stance on the Eastern European bases only if NATO provides written assurances that they will never be used to shoot down Russian missiles. 

The missile shield in Central Eastern Europe became a reality

On 28 October, work started at the former airbase at Deveselu in southern Romania on installing elements of the US missile defence system, specifically an Aegis system with SM-3 interceptors.

This means that the missile defence project is being implemented on schedule. From the Russian perspective, the start of work on the missile shield in Central Europe represents a failure of its policy of preventing the deployment of strategic US military facilities within the former Soviet sphere of influence.

However, it is unlikely that Moscow will soften its position and become more flexible with regard to the planned location of anti-missile launchers in Poland. 

The Shield in Central Europe

After a pause in implementing the original plan for the missile defence system during the presidency of George W Bush in 2009, which assumed the construction of a global system capable of capturing and neutralising all categories of ballistic missiles, the Obama administration has put forward a new plan for a shield for the region.

This provides for the suspension (at least until 2020) of the so-called fourth phase of the system, involving the deployment of missiles in Europe which could neutralise intercontinental ballistic missiles, while implementing the so-called third phase, based on installing Aegis anti-missile launchers in Poland and Romania, and on activating a radar station in Turkey (radar stations in the Czech Republic were also a proposed element of the Bush plan).

Negotiations are in progress on constructing a future missile defence system for NATO based on elements of the American shield in Europe, a plan which was approved at the NATO summit in Chicago in 2012.

Romania: ¿An aircraft carrier for the US?

The Deveselu base represents the second stage of the project to create a regional anti-missile shield (the first included the launch of the radar system in Turkey, and the deployment in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea of US Navy ships with Aegis systems).

The anti-missile launchers (3 SM-3 batteries, with a total of 24 missiles) is expected to be operational by the end of 2015. The third stage involves installing the same system in Poland by the end of 2018.

¿Failure of Russian security policy?

Russia has always contested the deployment of elements of a missile defence system within the former Soviet sphere of influence.

It has stated that the anti-missile programme poses a threat to its national security, although to a substantial degree its opposition actually derives from geopolitical causes. Russia made its cooperation with the United States and NATO on the missile defence system conditional on having the right of joint decision over what form the system takes (either by a joint decision-making process, or by imposing technical parameters that limit the system’s activity), as well as international legal guarantees that the system will not undermine Russia’s nuclear potential.

Russia has also put forward its own initiatives, including so-called sectoral missile defence, in which the Russian army would take responsibility for the defence of NATO’s eastern region. So far, Russia’s policy to prevent the deployment of the missile shield in Central Europe has been limited to diplomatic activity and periodic threats to take military measures (mainly by deploying Iskander missiles, which can destroy anti-missile installations, in the Kaliningrad region).  The military projects Russia has initiated over the last few months (such as the activation of the radar station in the Kaliningrad region, the deployment of Russian combat aircraft in Belarus, and the delivery of more S-300 missiles) are part of the accepted trend of modernising its armed forces, and have no direct connection with the American system.

Retaliatory measures by Russia (such as the deployment of Iskanders in the Kaliningrad region, possibly in Belarus, or least likely of all in Transnistria) will be postponed, and will ultimately depend on whether the US anti-missile systems are deployed in Poland. It must be regarded as doubtful that Moscow would treat the installation of the SM-3 rocket system in Romania as a signal to moderate its position (as NATO expects), or to show greater flexibility regarding NATO’s deployment of shield elements in Poland, especially as it regards a US military presence on its borders as one of the main threats to its security. An agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program, as was hoped for after the election of that country’s new president, would undoubtedly serve as an argument against the US deploying its anti-missile units in Poland.

(Read more)

RS-26: Serious reasons to be concerned

Russia will test launch a controversial missile over the next several weeks that U.S. officials say is raising serious concerns. Let us see briefly why:

1. The RS-26 missile is expected to be deployed with multiple supersonic, maneuvering warheads designed to defeat U.S. missile defenses in Europe.
2. The new missile appears to violate the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, based on recent tests and Russian statements that it is designed to thwart U.S. defenses.
3. The Russians have been quoted in state-controlled press reports as saying the new missile will be used to defeat and destroy U.S. and NATO missile defenses in Europe.
4. The new missile will be equipped with three multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles, or MIRVs. What is new is that the warheads are super-high-speed vehicles capable of maneuvering from missile interceptors. The maneuvering warheads are considered advanced technology that will increase the precision targeting of the missile system.
5. The missile will be equipped with a high-performance fuel that boosts acceleration shortly after launch, a feature useful for avoiding anti-missile interceptors.
6. The RS-26 will add to Russia’s formidable and growing arsenal, which includes SS-27 and SS-29 road-mobile, solid-fuel missiles; a new submarine-launched nuclear missile called Bulava; and plans for a new silo-based ICBM.

US Nimitz aircraft carrier headed closer to Syria

The Nimitz carrier strike group, which includes a guided missile cruiser and four destroyers, was kept in the Indian Ocean for a "prudent responsible decision," an official told the television channel.

Five US destroyers are now positioned in eastern Mediterranean waters, up from the usual three that normally focus on countering Iranian ballistic missile threats to Europe. The destroyers -- the USS Stout, Mahan, Ramage, Barry and Graveley -- are ready to fire cruise missiles if President Barack Obama gives the order.

In a surprise move, Obama has delayed the threat of missile strikes against Damascus that had appeared imminent, saying he would first seek formal approval from Congress.

As Tensions with West Rise, Moscow Looks to Asia

The various U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) initiatives in Europe and elsewhere have been the most immediate source of Russia-West tensions. Although the Obama administration has twice restructured its BMD deployment plans in ways that should have pleased Moscow, Russian officials continue to depict U.S. missile defenses in Europe as threatening Russia’s vast land-based missile arsenal. In the Middle East, Russia has been arguing that diplomacy rather than missile defenses can best moderate Iranian nuclear and missile ambitions. In East Asia, Russian analysts have implied that the United States is using North Korean missile launches to augment its BMD and other military assets in Asia as well as strengthen its alliances with Japan, South Korea, and other countries in ways that could adversely impact Russia’s security. Although Russians recognize that the U.S. missile defenses in California and Alaska are not presently very effective, they profess to fear that the United States could achieve a revolutionary breakthrough that could render the U.S. homeland considerably less vulnerable to Russia’s nuclear deterrent. (Read more)

Russian Defense Radar, Missiles Worry U.S. Officials

Russia’s military has completed work on a new missile defense radar in southern Russia that has some U.S. military officials worried Moscow is building up offensive and defensive strategic forces in destabilizing combination. The large radar station near Armavir, located near the Black Sea and designed to detect missiles launched from Europe and Iran, is nearly complete, said U.S. officials. The radar deployment comes as Russia is seeking legal restrictions on U.S. and NATO missile defenses in Europe that are designed to protect the continent and the United States from long-range Iranian missiles. A U.S. military official said the Armavir radar station, along with a major buildup of missile defenses and new short- and medium-range missiles, poses a strategic threat to the United States and NATO allies. “The Russians are upset with U.S. missile defenses in Europe and here they are building a network of missile tracking facilities,” the official said. (Read more)

NATO technical upgrades support Europe’s largest missile defence exercise

 

From 28 May to 6 June, the NCI Agency contributed to Joint Project Optic Windmill/ Joint Project Optic Alliance 13 (JPOW), the largest exercise in Europe devoted to air and missile defence. The joint and combined Integrated Air and Missile Defence exercise was conducted by the Royal Netherlands Air Force, in close cooperation with Allies and Partners. (Read more)