India: El Agni-VI en la fase final de su gestación

Durante la última década el primer ministro Narendra Modi ha transformado a la India en un estado consciente de la importancia de contar con mecanismos propios de disuasión habida cuenta de su peligrosa proximidad con China y Pakistan.

Este enfoque ha propiciado que a día de hoy la India cuente con un arsenal nada despreciable de misiles, entre los que merece destacarse el Agni-V: Un misil nuclear cuyos 5.000 km de alcance le permiten cubrir toda Asia, partes del norte de África, Europa del Este y Rusia.

La posesión de tales armas de destrucción masiva indican su compromiso con la paz ante sus eternos rivales y vecinos, y su convicción de que sólo la preparación para la guerra puede garantizar la paz. Por ello no es de extrañar que el Agni-V no vaya a ser en modo alguno el miembro último y final de la familia, sino el trampolín para completar el próximo ICBM indio: El Agni-VI, que se encuentra ya en la fase final de su gestación.

Este nuevo hermano viene pequeño pero matón: Puede alcanzar objetivos a 12.000 de distancia y va armado con múltiples ojivas nucleares independientes y con capacidad de maniobra para sortear misiles interceptores. Con este nuevo desarrollo, el primer ministro quiere dejar claro que ninguna agresión a la India podrá quedar impune, y que es mejor tenerla de amiga que de enemiga.

Corea del Norte asegura que puede miniaturizar bombas nucleares

Corea del Norte afirmó hoy en sus medios estatales que tiene capacidad para miniaturizar bombas nucleares, lo que de ser cierto permitiría al régimen comunista amenazar de nuevo a los Estados Unidos y a sus aliados en Asia Pacífico.

Más concretamente, la Comisión Nacional de Defensa aseguró en un comunicado que defenderá al país con cabezas atómicas lo suficientemente pequeñas como para ser ensambladas en sus proyectiles: Según un comunicado publicado por la agencia de noticias norcoreana KCNA “Ha pasado largo tiempo desde que empezamos a diversificar y miniaturizar nuestros medios de ataque nuclear... Hemos alcanzado el punto en el que podemos garantizar el más alto nivel de precisión, no solo para misiles de corto y medio alcance, sino tambien para misiles de largo alcance." 

Esto no quiere decir nada ya que si bien es verdad que Corea del Norte ha realizado tres ensayos de detonaciones nucleares desde 2006, lo cierto es que hasta ahora no ha demostrado ser capaz de miniaturizar las bombas para ensamblarlas en proyectiles y es por esto que los expertos mantienen opiniones diversas sobre la fase de desarrollo en la que se encuentra. Ello no obsta para admitir que, en el caso de que Pyongyang logre miniaturizar armas nucleares, éstas podrían suponer una amenaza directa sobre suelo estadounidense gracias a sus misiles de largo alcance. 

Corea del Sur, por su parte, aseguró a principios de año en su Libro Blanco de Defensa que el Norte ha adquirido un nivel tecnológico “significativo” en la miniaturización de cabezas atómicas. De confirmarse que Pyongyang es capaz de fabricar y desplegar misiles nucleares, podrían darse fuertes cambios en la situación de seguridad en el nordeste de Asia, e incluso una escalada armamentística en la región: EEUU, China, Rusia, Japón y Corea del Sur han instado a Corea del Norte a renunciar a su programa de desarrollo de armas nucleares, pero como vemos el régimen comunista ha insistido e insiste en potenciarlo a toda costa, incluso a riesgo de abocarnos a todos al precipicio de una posible -y cada vez más probable- Tercera Guerra Mundial.

India: Se postponen las pruebas del Agni-V

Problemas de agenda del Primer Ministro Narendra Modi han motivado el retraso de las pruebas del Agni-V que estaban programadas para este mes. Estas serán llevadas a cabo a partir del 26 de Enero, si bien la fecha más probable se baraja que podría estar en la primera semana de Febrero.

La importancia de este misil con capacidad nuclear estriba principalmente en su autonomía de 5.000 kilómetros, con la que podría alcanzar blancos en China, en toda Asia y en algunos países europeos. En la actualidad, tan sólo Estados Unidos, China, Rusia, Francia y Reino Unido poseen ICBMs de más de 5.500 kilómetros de alcance, por lo que el Agni-V deja a la India a las puertas de este selecto club nuclear.

David del Fresno Consultores

Asesoría Tecnológica en Impresión 3D y Manufactura Aditiva

http://daviddft.wix.com/david-del-fresno

Japan, South Korea and Australia urge US to boost BMD

Alarmed by the potential danger from an unpredictable Kim Jong-un, South Korea and Japan are upgrading their cooperation with the United States to counter ballistic missile threats.

In addition, “Australia has signed on to cooperate with American ballistic missile defense systems in north Asia, and has welcomed both the larger U.S. Marine presence in Darwin and the prospect of more joint naval cooperation in the region,” Britain’s Guardian newspaper reported.

China may obtain S-400

Chinese military commentators said China may become the first foreign buyer of Russia's S-400 surface-to-air missile system, which could help the country integrate its air defense and anti-missile systems, reports Chinese national broadcaster CCTV.

Negotiations between China and Russia over the system have been difficult since China has different needs for its air defense, said military commentator Du Wenlong. The system's operational height and range, the range of its radar and the number of targets the radar tracks will all need to be adjusted. Du said the sale will not be simple weapons trade but a technology transfer that could enhance China's air defense and anti-missile capability as a whole in the future.

America's Asia Pivot policy would be severely impacted if China obtains the S-400 system, as it could cover the airspace over Taiwan and or even its eastern coasts and counter-attack US aircrafts coming from Guam and Okinawa: The system comes with powerful radar and has anti-jamming capabilities, becoming able to create a multi-layer air defense structure with three guided missiles of different ranges as well as tracking hundreds of targets and attacking up to 36 of them at once. "The S400 could affect regional security if China buys the system and decides to plant it within range of the disputed Diaoyutai island", said Paul Schwartz, a researcher for the Center for Strategic & International Studies' Russian and Eurasia Program.

Unlike the system's predecessor S-300, S-400 is compatible with weapons made by other countries and sports superior performance. The system can hit a target 10 m to 60 km above ground and intercept a ballistic missile from 30 km away. Its life span has also greatly improved to 20 years. With the S-400 system and the existing surface-to-air guided missiles Hongqi-9, S-300 and the advanced version of S-300, China will be able to build an air defense system covering long, medium and short distances, said Du. The country will also be able to integrate the system with anti- guided-missile systems. The chance of intercepting high-precision guided weapons such as guided missiles is likely to increase significantly in the future, also expanding the types of targets that China could intercept, said the commentator.

Report warns MANPADS may be loose in Syria

The Syrian government’s shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles and launchers could imperil civil aviation if they fall into the hands of terror groups, according to an independent report examining the global proliferation of portable missiles.

Citing video and photo evidence from opposition forces, media and official accounts, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) study says some portable launchers and missiles have been seized by opposition forces during battles with Syrian troops, while others have been smuggled in to rebel fighters from neighboring countries.

The 88-page report warns about man-portable air-defense systems, also known as MANPADS, in the arsenal of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government. U.S. officials have estimated the Syrian government has as many as 20,000 MANPADS, compact missile launchers with the range and explosive power to attack low-flying planes and helicopters. Syria’s anti-aircraft missile inventory is comparable in size to that amassed by Libyan forces before the 2011 ouster of Moammar Gadhafi.

The FAS study cites the widespread looting of anti-aircraft weapons that occurred after Gadhafi’s fall and the mass ransacking of Iraqi weapons depots after the U.S. invasion in 2003 as evidence that Syria’s missiles are equally vulnerable. Portable anti-aircraft missiles have most often been used by non-government forces in conflict zones such as Iraq, where U.S. aircraft were targeted and sometimes struck by militants. Civilian passenger flights have never been threatened by shoulder-fired missiles in the U.S., but there have been nearly a dozen lethal strikes over the past decade in Asia and Africa.

The FAS report said the terrorist group al-Shabab in Somalia used an SA-18 missile to shoot down a Belarusian cargo aircraft departing from Mogadishu in 2007. Many of the portable launchers displayed by Syrian rebel groups on the Internet appear to be decades-old models such as Russian-made SA-7s — similar to ones found in Libya after Gadhafi’s ouster. Unlike Libya, Syria’s military has a larger supply of newer and longer-range models supplied from Russia, and as a result, Syrian rebels also appear to have seized some new-model Russian missile launchers.

India: Second test-firing of Agni-V

Working at a fast pace towards production and induction of Agni-V missile into the forces, Defence Research and DevelopmentOrganisation (DRDO) is reportedly planning its second test fire next month.

The maiden test fire of Agni-V, the first intercontinental ballistic missile of India, was carried out in April 2012. The successful trial catapulted the country into the exclusive ICBM club comprising six elite countries, United States of America, Russia, China, France and United Kingdom.

Dr. V. G. Sekaran, chief controller R&D Missiles & Strategic Systems and Agni programme director, said that while no date has been fixed for the test as of now, it will be conducted in September. "This test shall be aimed at repeatability of the previous test for stabilizing the performance of sub-systems," he said, adding that DRDO is working at starting the production and delivery phase by 2015 for Agni-V.

Meanwhile, DRDO is leaving no stone unturned for kick starting the canisterization process for Agni-V by this year end. Canister launch of the missile will enable higher flexibility in launching speedy firing from any location on a road. The indigenously developed 50-tonne long range surface-to-surface ballistic missile Agni-V, which is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead weighing more than a tonne, has a 5,000 km range as per DRDO officials, who confirmed that preparations are at full swing at Wheeler Island off the Odisha Coast for a September launch.

Once inducted, India's range with respect to missile reach would include the entire Asia as well as parts of other continents. Agni V will be inducted into the force equipped with MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicles (MIRVs) for shooting multiple warheads at the same time.

As Tensions with West Rise, Moscow Looks to Asia

The various U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) initiatives in Europe and elsewhere have been the most immediate source of Russia-West tensions. Although the Obama administration has twice restructured its BMD deployment plans in ways that should have pleased Moscow, Russian officials continue to depict U.S. missile defenses in Europe as threatening Russia’s vast land-based missile arsenal. In the Middle East, Russia has been arguing that diplomacy rather than missile defenses can best moderate Iranian nuclear and missile ambitions. In East Asia, Russian analysts have implied that the United States is using North Korean missile launches to augment its BMD and other military assets in Asia as well as strengthen its alliances with Japan, South Korea, and other countries in ways that could adversely impact Russia’s security. Although Russians recognize that the U.S. missile defenses in California and Alaska are not presently very effective, they profess to fear that the United States could achieve a revolutionary breakthrough that could render the U.S. homeland considerably less vulnerable to Russia’s nuclear deterrent. (Read more)