In this essay, Leonid Ryabikhin argues that distrust, misunderstanding and concern prevail in US/NATO and Russia relations “which increases the risk of unintended or accidental conflict. Human or technical mistakes and a variety of natural events can cause the failure or malfunction of technical systems and errors in decision making. The absence of contacts between the United States and Russian military and the failure to reach new agreements while existing agreements collapse worsens an already dangerous situation.”
Leonid Ryabikhin holds research positions in the Russian Diplomatic Academy and in the Institute of World Economy and International Relations. In 1989, he joined the Committee of Soviet Scientists for Peace Against Nuclear Threat and the Committee of Scientists for Global Security and Arms Control where he is Executive Secretary. He also served in the USSR Air Force.
Acknowledgments: The workshop was funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.
This report is published simultaneously by Technology for Global Security and is published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License.
There are currently no imminent nuclear threats against the United States at this time, but let us go summarize the today-and-now status quo regarding the main actors on the main stages of a possible WW3
UNITED STATES vs RUSSIA
As the United States continues to consider withdrawing from the intermediate range nuclear weapon treaty, Russia has warned of an “efficient response” if the United States deploys intermediate-range missiles in Europe, implicity threatening any country that hosts U.S. nuclear weapons.
INDIA vs PAKISTAN and CHINA
India’s first domestically built nuclear-powered submarine has completed its first patrol in a signal to both Pakistan and China and now says its nuclear triad is complete.
China has begun construction on third aircraft carrier
IRAN
Iran has test-fired a medium range ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple warheads.
NORTH KOREA vs UNITED STATES and SOUTH KOREA
North Korea has threatens to restart nuclear weapons programme if U.S. does not provide sanctions relief.
It must be noted that North Korea has continued to expand operations at its main nuclear site and that South Korea spy agency have reported that North Korea is continuing to miniaturize nuclear warheads.
United States say it may resume large-scale joint military exercises with South Korea if there continues to be no tangible progress on the denuclearization of North Korea.
RUSSIA vs UKRAINE
Russia has attacked and captured Ukraine vessels in the Sea of Azov.
While Ukraine makes noises of war, no other country seems to be moving in that direction.
The United States has stated that the current crises is an European problem, indicating that the U.S. will not get involved.
Additionally, Germany has refused a request to get involved.
This does not mean that escalation is not possible.
This is highly dependent on what Russia will do and how NATO will respond.
Almost everything that we now read about Russia, is precisely identical to that which accompanied the attack of Iraq by western powers.
There are a host of state actors with the capability to manufacture the Novichok nerve agent, all of whom may have varying and significant motivations to implicate Russia at this moment in time.
If such claims, threats and retaliations against a much more potent power like Russia could once again trigger war... ¿Shouldn’t the evidence involved be held to the very highest standard possible?
We have all reading extensively over the last years many fake news being repeatedly used to demonize Russia. If this all ends in a war between the NATO and Russia, we should kiss goodbye our standard of living.
War with Russia is a possibility, and the West is increasing that risk through escalating provocation: The case presented against Russia by Theresa May... ¿Do not remind us the slip-shod rush to war in Iraq back in 2003?
We should all to take a deep breath and to consider this: If some countries really want a war with Russia and they seem determined to get it... We all will suffer their war.
"Earlier in the day, Russia and Turkey have signed a loan agreement on Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 systems"Haberturk TV said last Friday.
According to the Hurriyet daily, Ankara will pay part of the sum from its own funds and will contract a Russian loan for the rest. Notably, the loan will be in rubles.
On September 12, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Ankara had signed an agreement with Moscow on purchase of S-400 systems, with an advance payment already made.
On November 2, Director General of Russia’s Rostec CorporationSergei Chemezov told TASS that the contract with Turkey on the sales of S-400 Triumf systems exceeded two billion US dollars.
Supplies of these systems are expected to begin within two years. Russia’s S-400 Triumf (NATO reporting name: SA-21 Growler) is the latest long-range anti-aircraft missile system that went into service in 2007.
It is designed to destroy aircrafts, ballistic and cruise missiles, including medium-range missiles, and surface targets. The S-400 can engage targets at a distance of 400 kilometers and at an altitude of up to 30 kilometers.
Washington keeps persuading Turkey not to buy air and missile defense systems from Russia, US Department of Defense Spokesperson Johnny Michael told TASS: "We have relayed our concerns to Turkish officials regarding the purchase of the S-400," the Pentagon spokesman said. "A NATO interoperable missile defense system remains the best option to defend Turkey from the full range of threats in its region. We have an open dialogue on this issue, and have emphasized the importance of maintaining NATO interoperability on any major defense systems procurements."
In mid-March, China banned the sale of group tours to Seoul in retaliation against the installation of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in southeastern South Korea, which Beijing sees as a security threat. The move has dealt a harsh blow to local duty-free shops, as Chinese tourists were their main customers.
Industry leader Lotte Duty Free saw its sales fall 6.6 percent on-year to 2.6 trillion won ($2.3 billion) during the January-June period, with its operating income nose-diving 97 percent to 7.4 billion won. The company posted an operating income of 37.2 billion won in the first quarter, but it plummeted to an operating loss of 29.8 billion won in the second quarter.
¿What means THAAD?
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), formerly Theater High Altitude Area Defense, is an American anti-ballistic missile defense system designed to shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase (descent or reentry) by intercepting with a hit-to-kill approach.
THAAD was developed after the experience of Iraq's Scud missile attacks during the Gulf War in 1991. The THAAD interceptor carries no warhead, but relies on its kinetic energy of impact to destroy the incoming missile. A kinetic energy hit minimizes the risk of exploding conventional warhead ballistic missiles, and the warhead of nuclear tipped ballistic missiles will not detonate on a kinetic energy hit.
¿What means Scud?
Scud is a series of tactical ballistic missiles developed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
The term comes from the NATO reporting name "Scud" which was attached to the missile by Western intelligence agencies.
The Russian names for the missile are the R-11 (the first version), and the R-17 (later R-300) Elbrus (later developments).
The name Scud has been widely used to refer to these missiles and the wide variety of derivative variants developed in other countries based on the Soviet design.
En fechas recientes, el Atlantic Council of the United States ha publicado un documento bajo el ISBN: 978-1-61977-474-2, accesible públicamente (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/Arming_for_Deterrence_web_0719.pdf) donde se indica a los actuales dirigentes polacos el camino a seguir para anticiparse a un posible -y cada día más probable- enfrentamiento militar con Rusia. Les recomiendo que se lo bajen de internet y lo lean con atención. Desde luego hay ciertos párrafos que resultan ciertamente inquietantes, sobre todo para los polacos. Se los copio a continuación:
Queda clara la amenaza real de un enfrentamiento militar con Rusia:
This report examines the threat posed by a resurgent Russia before considering NATO’s strategy and posture, focusing particularly on its Northeast region: Poland and the Baltic states. It then considers the implications for Poland and recommends how Polish defense should be reformed to take account of the new reality: That NATO now faces a greater
threat of war in its eastern regions than at any time since the end of the Cold War.
Aborda la posibilidad de que Rusia realice un ataque sorpresa:
Russia’s political-military leadership actively
uses military exercises for launching operations
and intimidating its neighbors. These exercises
represent a convenient way of camouflaging intent
should Moscow decide to launch a surprise attack.
Turning one of these exercises into an operation
against one or several of the Baltic states would
give very little or no early warning time for NATO.
Que la OTAN sería incapaz de contrarrestar en un primer momento:
As it stands, NATO’s defense posture is not strong enough to deter Russia. In part, this is because the Alliance’s decision-making will always be slower than Russia’s. NATO should compensate for this with a larger forward presence, better automated military movements that do not require prior North Atlantic Council approval, and adequate delegated authority to the military commanders, which so far has not been carried out at the level required.
Polonia debería comprometerse a atacar a Rusia hasta el final:
Poland should make clear policy declarations regarding its behavior in the event of Russian incursions and on targeting within Russia. (...) A statement is needed that Poland will immediately and unilaterally come to the aid of the Baltics (and Romania), should they be attacked in any way, pending a NATO-wide decision on Article 5. It should seek analogous declarations for itself, the Baltics, and Romania from the United States, the United Kingdom, and other allies, and reciprocity from Romania, as well. (...)
Poland should aim to join the
tactical nuclear capability
scheme within NATO, so
enabling its F-16s to be
carriers of tactical nuclear
ordnance. (...)
Poland should declare that it reserves the right to make counterattacks deep into Russian territory if Russia ever attacked Poland, notably with the long-range JASSM air launched cruise missiles it will receive from the United States later this year. (...) Poland should publish a potential list of targets, for example in the Kaliningrad Oblast. Kaliningrad city itself is less than 30 km from Poland, while the Pionerski strategic radar is some 60 km distant. (...) Poland should announce that it reserves the right to deploy offensive cyber operations (and not necessarily in response just to cyber attacks). The authorities could also suggest potential targets, which could include the Moscow metro, the St. Petersburg power network, and Russian state-run media outlets such as RT. (...) Poland should declare that, if attacked, it reserves the right to dispatch Special Operations Forces (SOF) into Russian territory such as Kaliningrad, in order to help destroy high-value targets, e.g. the Pantsyr and other missile batteries, which may be difficult to disable by methods such as jamming. (...) Poland should demonstrate the ability independently to target weapons and to launch these forces and capabilities. It should also show the ability to move forces into the Baltics and possibly Romania, in the process demonstrating joint action with relevant elements of US and other allied units.
Acción política:
Poland should undertake firm opposition to any
EU plans (such as may be contemplated in the
new Global Strategy on Foreign and Security
Policy) envisaging an EU military force.
Medidas estratégicas urgentes:
As for immediate needs, Poland should improve
the overall command and control of its forces,
plus undertake a number of urgent acquisitions
to bolster strategic deterrence and tactical preparations. (...) Poland should undertake these urgent procurements using radically different methods to overcome the systemic delays in the past. (...) Poland should ensure that all battlefield radios are digital and encrypted. Indeed, it should ensure that all Ministry and Armed Forces communications are secure, as many doubts on this matter persist. (...) Poland has been contemplating the Extended Range (900 km) JASSM cruise missile. If it places an order, it will be the first US ally to operate the Extended Range variant. Poland should expedite this procurement, mobilizing the support required in the US Congress. (...) Poland should address its capacity for independent targeting of key weapons, JASSM missiles, and others. (...) Poland should plan and train for the dispersal of the F-16s and weaponry to temporary, random airfields and roads in Poland itself, in the Baltics, and Romania. (...)
The Naval Strike Missile (NSM) coastal missiles
launched from two batteries of onshore mobile
launchers serve primarily to interdict surface
shipping, but can also have a strategic dimension.
With a 185 km range, if properly targeted they can
also destroy onshore targets, say in Kaliningrad.
Poland should rapidly augment its targeting radars for longer distances. It should also order more of these NSM missiles
and launcher. Its two batteries cost $132 million in total. Incremental missiles were recently reported to cost somewhat over $2 million each. (...) Poland should contract with NATO-member militaries or civilian firms to develop cyber capabilities and train Polish cyber troops, complementing measures already underway. Poland should develop an information warfare capability using social media and other channels, to counter Russia’s active propaganda campaign, which uses overt methods and its numerous “trolls.” (...) Poland should seek to accelerate licensed production of the 1,000 Spike ATGMs, ordered from PGZ’s Mesko plant for delivery in 2017-20. Some of its 670 Rosomak wheeled Infantry Fighting Vehicles can transport Spike-equipped troops (and 307 more Rosomaks are on order). If needed, Poland should order rival ATGMsystems for faster delivery. (...) Poland should immediately order an adequate number of the new Polish Piorun missiles, to supplement the approximately 2,000 Polish Grom missiles currently held (400 launchers, with only 5 missiles per launcher). (...) A network of all-weather shelters should be constructed, with stores of food, fuel, weapons and ammunition, medical kit, and communications gear.
Plan de movilización:
Poland should plan mobilization (including transport to northeastern Poland, the Baltics, and Romania) for both its Regular and Reserve units. Mobilization domestically of the new Territorials should also be on the agenda. (...) Poland should demonstrate readiness by frequent exercises. Interchangeable and mutually redundant channels should be planned. Railways, aircraft from the national carrier LOT and other sources, civilian road vehicles, and Polish and non-Polish ferries should all be included, in addition to the military’s own resources. (...) Transport for the Territorials should include use of local civilian 4WD and other vehicles. Mobilization and transfers east from the center and west of the country should be planned and publicly rehearsed. (...) Radical change is needed to the archaic culture regarding MRO, which calls for most of it to be done by Poland’s military. Civilian contractors should be brought in to replace over-stretched or badly run military servicing units.
Russia has started large-scale preparations for flight tests of the new “Sarmat” heavy intercontinental ballistic missile which is set to join the service by 2018. The former Chief of Staff of the Strategic Missile Forces, Viktor Esin, said that the missile will replace the most powerful RS-20V Voevoda (according to NATO classification — SS-18 Satan) ballistic complexes. (Read more)
North Korea has recently claimed a series of breakthroughs in its push to build a long-range nuclear missile that can strike the American mainland. If the North's claims about the sixth Musudan launch are true, it would pose a threat to the USA military base in Guam, where troops that would be sent to the Korean Peninsula if conflict broke out are based, and also possibly a nuclear threat. It explains in part North Korea's tenacious testing of the Musudan missile. (Read more)
Today, the world may face some surprises due a number of emerging technological advances that could significantly lower the barriers to the development of nuclear arms.
In particular, additive manufacturing of machine parts, such as those needed for uranium-enrichment centrifuges and missile engines—and the use of lasers to enrich uranium may create new pathways to more-rapid development of nuclear weapons and the systems necessary for their delivery.
It may only be a few years, if that, before additive manufacturing is widely adopted. Although laser enrichment has not been commercialized, it may be adapted before long for enriching uranium on the smaller scale needed for a nuclear weapons program.
NATO’s 28 members decided in 2010 to create a missile shield based on US technology.
The project is due to be completed in 2020, with significant elements in Romania and Poland. But last monday Poland urged NATO’s new secretary general to push ahead with the missile shield system amid the West’s worst standoff with Russia since the Cold War.
Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, who chose Warsaw for his first foreign visit, said Poland is "a key contributor to our missile defence system.”Stoltenberg, who took over as NATO chief on 1st October, insisted that Russia must reverse course in Ukraine but stressed that the alliance remains open to a constructive relationship with Moscow.
Tension mounted further after Russian President Vladimir Putin was quoted last month as saying that “if I wanted, Russian troops could not only be in Kiev in two days, but in Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn, Warsaw or Bucharest, too.”The escalation of tensions with Russia since January over its role in the Ukraine crisis has sounded the alarm on NATO’s eastern flank in countries that were under Moscow’s thumb during the Soviet era.
The Western defence alliance insists the role of the planned shield is a “purely defensive” response to external threats, notably from so-called “rogue states”, and is in no way directed against Russia. “We firmly support the creation of this system as a pan-NATO one because only this makes deep sense both politically and in terms of defence,” Poland’s President Bronislaw Komorowski said at a joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. “Poland is determined to build its missile shield and air defence system — it’s important not only for Poland — and we uphold our obligations for the US portion of this project,” stated.
Russia successfully tested its latest Bulava intercontinental nuclear missile Wednesday amid rising tensions with NATO over the conflict in Ukraine.
The nearly 37-ton missile was launched from Russia’s new submarine, the Vladimir Monomakh, as part of its sea trials. Deputy Defense Minister Yuriy Borisov said a total of five test launches are planned.
The Borei-class Vladimir Monomakh can carry up to 16 Bulava missiles, which can each carry up to 10 nuclear warheads. The Bulava missiles have a range of 5,000 miles and can reportedly cause a blast 100 times larger than the atomic bombs the U.S. dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
A Russian general has called for Russia to revamp its military doctrine, last updated in 2010, to clearly identify the U.S. and its NATO allies as Moscow’s enemy number one and spell out the conditions under which Russia would launch a preemptive nuclear strike against the 28-member military alliance, Interfax reported Wednesday.
And Russia is spending money as if a nuclear confrontation with the U.S. is a very real possibility. In fact, Russian President Vladimir Putin has committed to a “weapons modernization program” that is going to cost the equivalent of 540 billion dollars. In line with this program, it is said Russia would be building submarines so quiet that the U.S. military would not detect them. These “black hole” submarines could freely approach the coastlines of the United States almost without fear of being detected. The U.S. Navy openly acknowledges that they cannot track these subs when they are submerged, so it would mean that the Russians would be able to sail right up to U.S. coastlines and launch nukes whenever they want.
Meanwhile...
U.S. nuclear officers are actually still using floppy disks and other computer technology from the 1960s
The size of the U.S. nuclear arsenal has been reduced by about 95 percent from the peak of the Cold War
Most Americans still believe that “the Cold War is over” and that Russia presents absolutely no threat to U.S.
The Obama administration has discussed reducing the size of their already neutered strategic nuclear arsenal down to just 300 warheads
But...
Russian media is reporting that 60 percent of all Russian nuclear missiles will have radar-evading capability by 2016.
Just this week, Russia conducted a successful test of the new submarine-launched Bulava intercontinental nuclear missile.
Most Americans don’t want to think on this, but ¿What if Russian subs could come cruising right up to U.S. coasts while americans are sleeping..., and launch missiles towards the main cities? Of course nobody on either side actually hopes that such a war will happen, but most wars are won before a single shot is fired, and right now Russia is working very hard to make sure that it will have the best chance possible of coming out on top in any future conflict.
Let us hope and pray that we never see a nuclear war between the United States and Russia.
NATO is preparing a rapid response to the Ukraine crisis that would allow it to deploy troops swiftly to reinforce eastern Europe and dissuade Russia from further destabilising the region, the alliance chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Wednesday.
A NATO military officer in Brussels told The Associated Press that “we assess there are over 1,000 Russian troops operating inside Ukraine” now. He said NATO estimates that another 20,000 Russian troops are close by, right over the Russian border. He spoke on condition of anonymity because the material was confidential.
Additionally, Associated Press journalists on the border have seen the rebels with a wide range of unmarked military equipment — including tanks, Buk missile launchers and armored personnel carriers — and have run into many Russians among the rebel fighters. Ukraine also captured 10 soldiers from a Russian paratrooper division Monday around Amvrosiivka, a town 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the Russian border.
Joseph Dempsey, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said recent images of a military convoy in eastern Ukraine showed the presence of a variant of the T-72 tank that “is not known to have been exported or operated outside of Russia.”
The leader of the insurgency, Alexander Zakharchenko, said in an interview on Russian state television that 3,000 to 4,000 Russians have fought on the separatist side since the armed conflict began in April. The new southeastern front raised fears that the separatists are seeking to create a land link between Russia and Crimea. If successful, it could give them or Russia control over the entire Sea of Azov and the gas and mineral riches that energy experts believe it contains. Ukraine already lost roughly half its coastline, several major ports and significant Black Sea mineral rights in March when Russia annexed Crimea.
A related press release from Beijing’s state press agency carefully noted that the exercise “facilitate the pragmatic cooperation between the air forces of China and Russia in the military training field. The military cooperation between China and Russia is not targeted at any third party.”
Above all, perhaps, the high level of local media attention afforded to Aviadarts should be seen in light of Russian PresidentVladimir Putin’s efforts to flex Russian military muscle to the watching world: It was not too long ago that Russian air force units were struggling to find the fuel and spares to maintain even the minimum level of daily operations.
Aviadarts first took place in 2013, when around 50 pilots participated. This year has already seen two rounds of the competition. The first, which concluded in May, was an all-Russian affair, and involved around 50 aircrew flying from three different air bases. With this second round open to international participants, the Russian military is not only exhibiting the prowess of its aviators, but making efforts to build foreign relations at a time when Russia’s foreign policy is facing harsh criticism.
Certainly, some of the aspects of Aviadarts would come as a surprise to a NATO or other Western flier. In the weapon-employment phase, the tactical jets only employ unguided ordnance. That is to say, on-board cannon, free-fall dumb bombs and unguided rockets and no precision-guided munitions or guided missiles. Some observers have billed the Aviadarts exercise as a Russian Top Gun—a reference to the U.S. Navy’s fighter tactics schoolhouse, which the sailing branch established after losing a shocking number of pilots during the Vietnam War.
For Russia, this kind of alliance-building is useful at a time when its leaders increasingly are ostracized in the West. For the fighter pilots, a place at Aviadarts means heading to Lipetsk, the Russian air force’s center for combat and conversion training. If there is an elite unit within today’s Russian air force, then Lipetsk holds that mantle. Once at Lipetsk, competing fighter pilots have to demonstrate their skills in aerobatics, navigation, reconnaissance and evasion of ground-based air defense systems—including the feared S-300 surface-to-air missile. In order to get a place competing at Aviadarts, Russian pilots first must prove themselves the best within their own units, and then within their military district—one of the four operational commands of the Russian armed forces. Physical fitness, tactical acumen and gunnery all count.
Azerbaijan's Air Force has conducted its exercises in accordance with the plan under the supervision of Azerbaijani Defense Minister, Colonel-General Zakir Hasanov, the Defense Ministry said.
The ministry said that according to the exercises' scenario, a conditional enemy, which violated the airspace, was detected, and the information on it was delivered to the battle control station. The aerial objects were taken under control and destroyed with a conditional fire from the S-300 PMU and S-125 2TM anti-aircraft missile systems.
Aside from that, the combat aircraft participating in the exercises completely destroyed ground targets and military equipment of the conditional enemy. They also destroyed the enemy's engineer and sapper facilities with rocket fires and aerial destruction means. Following the training flights, the Defence Minister Zakir Hasanov presented the combat aircraft pilots with the most modern helmets and flight suits that meet NATO standards.
The Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Vella Gulf (CG 72) entered the Black Sea on Wednesday as part of the effort to strengthen the collective security of NATO allies and partners in the region, according to a statement by the US 6th Fleet.
The vessel’s weapons include SM-2 surface-to-air missiles, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, Tomahawk cruise missiles, torpedoes, PhalanxClose-in Weapons Systems for self-defense against aircraft and missiles, and five-inch, rapid fire guns.
Mikhail Fradkov, head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (Russian: Служба Внешней РазведкиSluzhba Vneshney Razvedki or SVR) has already briefed President Putin on the implications of the USS Donald Cook re-positioning in Rota base and US intentions to deploy at least four more ballistic missile defense capable ships in the region.
Russia Strategic Missile Force Commander announced that Moscow plans to deploy rail-mounted nuclear missiles as a defensive measure against the United States’ Prompt Global Strike missile program.
The benefits of a rail-mounted program include the ability to camouflage the missiles amidst commercial rail traffic, unlike more conventional silo-based nuclear missiles which can more easily be located and targeted. The START Treaty, signed by the United States and Russia in 2011, does not prohibit the development of rail-based missiles, although the fact that Russia decommissioned the last of its rail-based missiles eight years ago but is now restarting the program again suggests that Russia would be embarking on a nuclear arms build-up.
Russia’s military build-up would be a response to Washington’s plans to complete a project to install a missile defense system in Redzikowo, Poland by 2018 while another ballistic missile defense system in southern Romania is expected to be operational by 2015. Moscow fears that the missile shield is in fact offensive in nature and part of a NATO military encirclement of Russia.
.jpg)
