Iran: on the verge of becoming the next North Korea

As the Obama administration continues nuclear talks with Iran through November, Tehran’s military forces have continued to build up their cache of advanced weaponry, including drones and sophisticated missiles: A senior Iranian military commander has announced on Wednesday that Tehran is about to unveil new long-range and mid-range missile defense systems like Israel’s Iron Dome or the US Patriot, which can knock out incoming missiles in mid-air.

It is not a surprise for Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon adviser on Iran and Iraq for the George W. Bush administration, who said Iran has made “great strides” in its missile technology, though it is unlikely Tehran could rival the technology employed in Iron Dome. But, when it comes to nuclear weapons, "they are on the verge of becoming the next North Korea", Rubin said.

Poland: Missile Interceptors "On Target"

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday said an Obama administration plan to in the coming years field next-generation missile defense systems in Poland is "absolutely on target."

Speaking in Warsaw, Kerry told journalists the evolving security dynamics in Syria and Iran have not impacted U.S. plans to deploy in 2018 Standard Missile 3 Block 2A interceptors near the Baltic Sea coast in Redzikowo in accordance with the U.S. "phased adaptive approach" for European missile defense.

Polish officials are somewhat sensitive about the issue of alterations to plans on missile defense-cooperation with the United States. In 2009, the Obama administration announced it was canceling a Bush-era plan to around 2015 field 10 long-range Ground Based Interceptors on Polish territory and instead would field a different model of interceptor -- the Standard Missile 3 Block 2B. But then in 2013, the United States declared it would not pursue development of the Block 2B, which was aimed at targeting intercontinental-ballistic missiles, and would just field Block 2A missiles in Poland.

The latter weapon is designed to target intermediate-range missiles. "Poland is a very important part of the European phased-adaptive approach on NATO missile defense," Kerry said. The United States and NATO are pursuing an alliance-wide missile shield capable of defeating medium-range ballistic missiles fired from the Middle East. Russia opposes the effort, seeing it as a threat to the strategic nuclear balance on the continent.

The missile shield in Central Eastern Europe became a reality

On 28 October, work started at the former airbase at Deveselu in southern Romania on installing elements of the US missile defence system, specifically an Aegis system with SM-3 interceptors.

This means that the missile defence project is being implemented on schedule. From the Russian perspective, the start of work on the missile shield in Central Europe represents a failure of its policy of preventing the deployment of strategic US military facilities within the former Soviet sphere of influence.

However, it is unlikely that Moscow will soften its position and become more flexible with regard to the planned location of anti-missile launchers in Poland. 

The Shield in Central Europe

After a pause in implementing the original plan for the missile defence system during the presidency of George W Bush in 2009, which assumed the construction of a global system capable of capturing and neutralising all categories of ballistic missiles, the Obama administration has put forward a new plan for a shield for the region.

This provides for the suspension (at least until 2020) of the so-called fourth phase of the system, involving the deployment of missiles in Europe which could neutralise intercontinental ballistic missiles, while implementing the so-called third phase, based on installing Aegis anti-missile launchers in Poland and Romania, and on activating a radar station in Turkey (radar stations in the Czech Republic were also a proposed element of the Bush plan).

Negotiations are in progress on constructing a future missile defence system for NATO based on elements of the American shield in Europe, a plan which was approved at the NATO summit in Chicago in 2012.

Romania: ¿An aircraft carrier for the US?

The Deveselu base represents the second stage of the project to create a regional anti-missile shield (the first included the launch of the radar system in Turkey, and the deployment in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea of US Navy ships with Aegis systems).

The anti-missile launchers (3 SM-3 batteries, with a total of 24 missiles) is expected to be operational by the end of 2015. The third stage involves installing the same system in Poland by the end of 2018.

¿Failure of Russian security policy?

Russia has always contested the deployment of elements of a missile defence system within the former Soviet sphere of influence.

It has stated that the anti-missile programme poses a threat to its national security, although to a substantial degree its opposition actually derives from geopolitical causes. Russia made its cooperation with the United States and NATO on the missile defence system conditional on having the right of joint decision over what form the system takes (either by a joint decision-making process, or by imposing technical parameters that limit the system’s activity), as well as international legal guarantees that the system will not undermine Russia’s nuclear potential.

Russia has also put forward its own initiatives, including so-called sectoral missile defence, in which the Russian army would take responsibility for the defence of NATO’s eastern region. So far, Russia’s policy to prevent the deployment of the missile shield in Central Europe has been limited to diplomatic activity and periodic threats to take military measures (mainly by deploying Iskander missiles, which can destroy anti-missile installations, in the Kaliningrad region).  The military projects Russia has initiated over the last few months (such as the activation of the radar station in the Kaliningrad region, the deployment of Russian combat aircraft in Belarus, and the delivery of more S-300 missiles) are part of the accepted trend of modernising its armed forces, and have no direct connection with the American system.

Retaliatory measures by Russia (such as the deployment of Iskanders in the Kaliningrad region, possibly in Belarus, or least likely of all in Transnistria) will be postponed, and will ultimately depend on whether the US anti-missile systems are deployed in Poland. It must be regarded as doubtful that Moscow would treat the installation of the SM-3 rocket system in Romania as a signal to moderate its position (as NATO expects), or to show greater flexibility regarding NATO’s deployment of shield elements in Poland, especially as it regards a US military presence on its borders as one of the main threats to its security. An agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program, as was hoped for after the election of that country’s new president, would undoubtedly serve as an argument against the US deploying its anti-missile units in Poland.

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