¿Has China really backed down over South Korea missile shield row?

Back in 2016 – after the United States and South Korea decided that US Forces Korea would deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defence shield system in South Korea – relations between Beijing and Seoul fell off a cliff.

China unofficially sanctioned South Korean firms, including Lotte, the conglomerate that would eventually cede land to the South Korean government in the country’s south to allow for a deployment of the missile system. For Beijing, the US deployment of THAAD was never about the missile interceptors: Rather, Beijing has long expressed open concern – even through its foreign minister – about the powerful X-band AN/TPY-2 radar that accompanies the THAAD system.

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South Korea: Duty-free shops still reeling from THAAD impact

In mid-March, China banned the sale of group tours to Seoul in retaliation against the installation of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in southeastern South Korea, which Beijing sees as a security threat. The move has dealt a harsh blow to local duty-free shops, as Chinese tourists were their main customers.

Industry leader Lotte Duty Free saw its sales fall 6.6 percent on-year to 2.6 trillion won ($2.3 billion) during the January-June period, with its operating income nose-diving 97 percent to 7.4 billion won. The company posted an operating income of 37.2 billion won in the first quarter, but it plummeted to an operating loss of 29.8 billion won in the second quarter.

¿What means THAAD?

Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), formerly Theater High Altitude Area Defense, is an American anti-ballistic missile defense system designed to shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase (descent or reentry) by intercepting with a hit-to-kill approach.

THAAD was developed after the experience of Iraq's Scud missile attacks during the Gulf War in 1991. The THAAD interceptor carries no warhead, but relies on its kinetic energy of impact to destroy the incoming missile. A kinetic energy hit minimizes the risk of exploding conventional warhead ballistic missiles, and the warhead of nuclear tipped ballistic missiles will not detonate on a kinetic energy hit.

¿What means Scud?

Scud is a series of tactical ballistic missiles developed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

The term comes from the NATO reporting name "Scud" which was attached to the missile by Western intelligence agencies.

The Russian names for the missile are the R-11 (the first version), and the R-17 (later R-300) Elbrus (later developments).

The name Scud has been widely used to refer to these missiles and the wide variety of derivative variants developed in other countries based on the Soviet design.

THAAD seen as capable of intercepting N.K. mid-range missile

The advanced U.S. missile defense system THAAD is believed to be capable of intercepting North Korea's intermediate-range ballistic missiles if it is deployed in South Korea, Seoul's defense chief said Friday.

North Korea claimed Thursday that it has succeeded in test-firing its mid-range missile, boasting of its capacity to hit U.S. forces in the Pacific region. "The deployment of THAAD will help South Korea's move to counter the North's missile threats," Defense Minister Han Min-koo told reporters.

The minister said that more information is needed to check THAAD's capability to intercept the North's mid-range missiles, but generally, the system is believed to be up to the task. Seoul and Washington have been discussing the potential deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery in South Korea, where about 28,500 American troops are stationed.

The allies' move is aimed at countering the North's evolving missile threats amid concerns about the technical progress of North Korea's nuclear and missile programs. On Wednesday, the North fired off what is believed to be two Musudan mid-range missiles, marking its fifth and sixth launches since April. The Musudan missile, with an estimated range of some 3,000 to 4,000 kilometers, could theoretically reach any target in Japan and fly as far as the U.S. territory of Guam.

The North's first five attempts to test-fire the missile failed, but the sixth one flew about 400 kilometers after being launched at a higher angle Wednesday. The North's latest move raises concerns about advances made in the country's nuclear and missile capabilities. Pyongyang is seeking to develop a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting targets on the U.S. mainland. South Korea's military said that it is too early to conclude the North's test was a total success, but experts said that if the North did not launch the missile at a higher angle, it could have traversed on a normal trajectory.

Han said that North Korea could test-fire an ICBM or a submarine-launched missile in a bid to show off its military prowess. "We do not rule out the possibility of an additional nuclear test by North Korea," he said. South Korea is speeding up the development of the indigenous Korea Air and Missile Defense system. A pre-emptive missile destruction system, the so-called Kill Chain, is also under development to detect and strike North Korea's missile and nuclear facilities. The North conducted its fourth nuke test in January and launched a long-range rocket in the following month, drawing international condemnation. The country is banned from using ballistic missile technology under relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions.

China presiona a Corea

Durante la última semana estamos observando cómo China está aumentando la presión sobre Corea del Sur para que impida el despliegue en su territorio del sistema defensivo conocido como Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD).

El pasado Lunes 13, el Secretario de Relaciones Exteriores de la República Popular China, Liu Jianchao, se reunió con su homólogo surcoreano Lee Kyung-soo. Al termino de la entrevista, Liu dijo a los periodistas que había hablado con Lee sobre las preocupaciones de China ante la posible implantación del THAAD: "Tuvimos una discusión muy franca y libre sobre el THAAD, durante la que se puso de manifiesto la posición china al respecto. Los Estados Unidos y Corea del Sur deben tomar una decisión adecuada sobre el THAAD", dijo Liu.

Beijing y Moscú están en contra de la implementación de una batería THAAD en Corea del Sur porque temen que su sistema de radar, que puede cubrir 1.000 kilometros, pueda ser utilizado en realidad para detectar misiles procedentes de China o de Rusia. Ahora bien, la posición oficial de Seúl y de Washington es que ni siquiera han discutido el despliegue del THAAD.

Han Min-koo, upbeat

During a parliamentary audit in the ministry building in Seoul, Defense Minister Han Min-gu said that he was looking at the deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system, a key element of the global U.S. missile defense program, from a standpoint of national security: "Given that the operational coverage of the THAAD is wide, should it be deployed here, it would help the defense of South Korea.”

In its parliamentary policy briefing, the ministry also said the number of North Korean summertime drills doubled this year, and that the North has gradually increased its strike capabilities: Over the last two years, the North has increased its number of multiple rocket launch systems by some 300. Currently the figure stands at 5,100, an increase from a 2012 estimate of 4,800, according to data from the ministry.

Seoul has been reluctant to openly talk about the issue of the THAAD deployment as it could cause diplomatic friction with Beijing and Moscow, which believe that the deployment could potentially target them in case of a crisis, but “While the assets that are available to cope with the North’s nuclear and missile threats are limited, the deployment of the THAAD would help ensure South Korea’s security and defense,” said Han during the audit.

Koreans eyeing Iron Dome

Iron Dome, which uses guided missiles to shoot down the Katyusha-style short-range rockets favored by Palestinian and Lebanese guerrillas, has scored around a 90% success rate in the month-old Gaza war, Israeli officials and U.S. observers say.

Rafael CEO Yedidia Yaari said the system’s performance had fuelled foreign interest in it, including by South Korea, which is in an armed standoff with North Korea: “South Korea is very worried not only about rockets, but other things as well ... You can certainly include them in the club of interested countries,” Yaari told Israel’s Army Radio, saying Rafael representatives had visited Seoul to promote Iron Dome.

Yaari did not give details on how advanced such a deal with South Korea may be. Rafael has not made public any foreign sales so far, saying it was giving priority to supplying Iron Domes to Israel, which has fielded nine out of a planned total of 12 interceptor units. Each Iron Dome battery costs around $50 million, and each interceptor missile between $30,000 and $50,000. Participating in Iron Dome’s production are Israeli defense contractors Elisra Group, Israel Aerospace Industries, and U.S. defense contractor Raytheon.

South Korea: China pissed due to the US antimissile plans

Beijing has voiced its concerns over THAAD plans, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang saying last month that “deploying missile defense on the Korean peninsula would not be in the interest of regional stability or strategic balance.”

The plans are justified by a growing missile threat from North Korea against America’s allies South Korea, Japan and military bases. The US military plans to deploy its Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense in South Korea and, according to some media reports, is pressuring Seoul to do so instead of developing a national missile defense system.

"There was consideration being taken in order to consider THAAD being deployed here in Korea. It is a US initiative, and in fact, I recommended it as the commander," General Curtis Scaparrotti, the commander of United States Forces Korea (USFK), said last month addressing a forum hosted by the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, in Seoul. Washington is looking for a region-wide, operational anti-missile defense system, with military experts believing that it would be actually aimed against China’s increasing military presence.

Washington so far has not officially proposed Seoul host its anti-missile system, with the plan being currently internally debated, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin said. While previously South Korean officials maintained that they want to provide protection from possible missile attacks domestically, on Wednesday South Korean acting Defense Minister Kim said he would not object to Korea hosting the American system, as long as Seoul does not pay for it. 

Kim guides rocket firing

North Korea said Monday that leader Kim Jong Un guided the test launches of tactical ballistic rockets aimed at U.S. and South Korean forces, the second such launch drill reported in state media in three days.

It’s Kim’s second reported inspection of firing drills in recent days. KCNA didn’t say when and where the training occurred, but the rockets the country said it fired were likely the suspected Scud missiles that South Korea says the North launched on Sunday as there were no other reported missile and rockets launches by the North on the day.

North Korea has in recent days criticized alleged South Korean artillery firing drills near a disputed maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea that has been the scene of several bloody skirmishes between the rival nations in recent years. North Korea regularly test-fires missiles and artillery, both to refine its weapons and to express its anger over various developments in Seoul and Washington. 

On Monday, Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency said Kim guided the drills, which involved precision-guided missiles and shells, and that he expressed satisfaction over the results. Outside analysts say North Korea has developed a handful of crude nuclear devices and is working toward building a warhead small enough to mount on a long-range missile, although most experts say that goal may take years to achieve.

S. Korea seeks multi-layered missile defense

South Korea will speed up building its own missile defense aimed at low-flying targets, while seeking ways to develop "multi-layered" deterrence against North Korea. 

Seoul has been gradually building an independent, low-tier missile shield called the Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD), with mid-term plans to acquire the latest Patriot missiles and long-range early warning radars.

In addition to the terminal phase system, the defense ministry said it is considering multi-layered defense to effectively strike ballistic missiles coming from different altitudes. "Our military is establishing a low-tier terminal-phase KAMD considering the range of North Korea's incoming ballistic missiles. It was reflected in the military acquisition plan and will be completed faster than expected," ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said in a briefing. "Our military is also looking into various measures to bolster the terminal phase, low-altitude defense to effectively counter North Korea's nuclear and missile threat."

Kim didn't specify weapons systems, but he excluded the Standard Missile-3, which intercepts missiles at an altitude over 400-500 kilometers, from the shopping list. Although there have been calls to adopt the long-range missile defense to establish a multi-layered shield against the North, Seoul's defense ministry has remained cautious over the American missile program as it could spur a regional arms race involving China and further contribute to mounting costs in the national missile program. Kim's remark raised speculation that Seoul is seeking to adopt systems like the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) by Lockheed Martin as a possible next step. THAAD is designed to shoot down short, medium and intermediate ballistic missiles in their terminal phase, using a hit-to-kill method.

Seoul has been pushing to bolster its defense against the communist rival after it successfully fired off a long-range rocket last December. Pyongyang claims the launch was aimed at putting a satellite into orbit, but Seoul and Washington consider it as a covert ballistic-missile technology test. Military experts say operating missile defense at different altitudes could provide enhanced protection against North Korea's mid- and long-range ballistic missiles.

North Korea thought to have 200 mobile missile launchers

 

According to the report submitted to the U.S. Congress by the Pentagon, North Korea appears to have accumulated up to 200 so-called transporter erector launchers (TEL), including up to 100 for short-range Scud missiles, 50 for medium-range Nodong missiles and 50 for long-range Musudan missiles, the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) said. (Read more)