South Korea: Duty-free shops still reeling from THAAD impact

In mid-March, China banned the sale of group tours to Seoul in retaliation against the installation of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in southeastern South Korea, which Beijing sees as a security threat. The move has dealt a harsh blow to local duty-free shops, as Chinese tourists were their main customers.

Industry leader Lotte Duty Free saw its sales fall 6.6 percent on-year to 2.6 trillion won ($2.3 billion) during the January-June period, with its operating income nose-diving 97 percent to 7.4 billion won. The company posted an operating income of 37.2 billion won in the first quarter, but it plummeted to an operating loss of 29.8 billion won in the second quarter.

¿What means THAAD?

Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), formerly Theater High Altitude Area Defense, is an American anti-ballistic missile defense system designed to shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase (descent or reentry) by intercepting with a hit-to-kill approach.

THAAD was developed after the experience of Iraq's Scud missile attacks during the Gulf War in 1991. The THAAD interceptor carries no warhead, but relies on its kinetic energy of impact to destroy the incoming missile. A kinetic energy hit minimizes the risk of exploding conventional warhead ballistic missiles, and the warhead of nuclear tipped ballistic missiles will not detonate on a kinetic energy hit.

¿What means Scud?

Scud is a series of tactical ballistic missiles developed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

The term comes from the NATO reporting name "Scud" which was attached to the missile by Western intelligence agencies.

The Russian names for the missile are the R-11 (the first version), and the R-17 (later R-300) Elbrus (later developments).

The name Scud has been widely used to refer to these missiles and the wide variety of derivative variants developed in other countries based on the Soviet design.

North Korean ICBMs: ¿From The Parade To The Test?

Among the new weapon systems put on display by North Korea two months ago were the Hwasong-12 Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) the Pukguksong-2 Medium-Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM), a new precision Scud variant, and an improved coastal defense cruise missile, all of which have appeared on the testing grounds in recent weeks.

However, North Korea has yet to test his liquid-fueled KN-08 and KN-14 ICBMs (Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles): North Korea has been exclusively testing missiles that appeared in a military parade earlier this year, raising serious questions about what threat from North Korea is getting ready next.

North Korea has said as much “The series of recent strategic weapons tests show that we are not too far away from test-firing an intercontinental ballistic missile,” the Rodong Sinmun, the official paper of the ruling party, said Saturday. In addition to its long-range missile aspirations, the North is also interested in developing a diverse arsenal of missiles for a complex variety of combat contingencies.

So, what is North Korea’s next move? “I suppose one way to think about it would be to look at the April 15 parade again,” Joshua Pollack, a leading arms expert, told The Daily Caller News Foundation. Even when the North has yet not tested the suspected solid-fueled, canister-launched ICBM seen during the parade, the recent string of weapons testing suggests that a test of some type of ICBM is coming soon.

North Korean missile tests

North Korea has launched five missile tests so far in 2017. The latest launch in mid-April, though assessed as a failure, came hours after North Korea rolled out intercontinental ballistic missiles and other military hardware at a big parade to celebrate the birthday of the country's late founder, Kim Il Sung, a grandfather of current leader Kim Jong Un. The festivities took place amid concerns that North Korea is possibly preparing for its sixth nuclear test or a significant rocket launch, such as its first test flight of an ICBM. Let us see -briefly- some details about each of the five tests that have already occurred this year:

Feb. 12

In February, North Korea successfully tested a land-based KN-15 missile, a new solid-fuel intermediate-range missile, which traveled 310 miles into the Sea of Japan. Gen. John Hyten, the commander of U.S. Strategic Command labeled the launch as “a major advancement” by North Korea because it was "a new solid medium range ballistic missile off a new transporter erector launcher."

March 6

In early March, North Korea launched five medium-range Scud-type missiles. Shortly after this test occurred, the U.S. delivered the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system to South Korea, a process which the U.S. started working on with its ally after the flurry of North Korean missile tests in 2016. THAAD is a missile defense shield designed to intercept short and medium range missiles.

March 21

Later in the month, North Korea tested a mobile-launched missile which exploded "within seconds of launch," according to U.S. Pacific Command. U.S. officials did not identify what type of missile was tested since it exploded so soon after launch.

April 4

On April 4, a KN-17 missile launch came just days before Chinese President Xi Jinping met with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago, during which the pair discussed how to curb North Korea's missile and nuclear programs. U.S. officials said the missile spun out of control and landed in the Sea of Japan after traveling 34 miles.

April 16

Less than two weeks later, North Korea launched another KN-17 that exploded shortly after launch.

(Read more)

El acuerdo con Iran, violado desde el principio

Como ustedes ya saben, tras 20 meses de negociaciones Iran ha accedido el pasado mes de Julio a firmar un acuerdo con el grupo P5+1, para limitar sus actividades nucleares a cambio del levantamiento de las sanciones económicas.

Sin embargo, numerosos analistas consideran insuficientes las garantías que ofrece el acuerdo, al objeto de evitar que Iran se convierta en una nueva potencia nuclear. Más concretamente, se temen que el acuerdo suponga "de facto" un balón de oxígeno para aquellos que están comprometidos a borrar a Israel de la faz de la tierra.

¿Es posible que haya motivos fundados para desconfiar de Iran... tan pronto? Vamos a exponer a continuación algunas realidades inquietantes, que conviene conocer, y luego juzguen ustedes.

El pasado Miércoles 29 de Julio, El Secretario de Estado norteamericano John Kerry afirmó que el General de División del Ejército Irani Quassem Soleimani, dirigente del Al-Quds Force, a quien se atribuye haber colaborado en el asesinato de más de 500 soldados norteamericanos en Irak a manos de las milicias chiies y de ayudar a defender al Presidente Sirio Bashar al Assad, nunca podría viajar fuera de Iran,  en virtud de los términos del acuerdo. Sin embargo, el acuerdo ya había sido violado pues Soleimani estaba ya en Irak, entrenando a las milicias chiies para la lucha contra el Estado Islámico.

Posteriormente, el Viernes 7 de Agosto los medios de comunicación iraníes confirmaron que Soleimani estaba en Rusia, reuniéndose con el Presidente Ruso Vladimir Putin. Nueva violación del acuerdo. ¿Qué estaba tratando con Putin? Todo apunta a la venta de misiles Scud, a la operación de los S-300 que se está ultimando esta misma semana en Moscú, y a un hipotético acuerdo de colaboración para continuar desarrollando un programa militar basado en armas de destrucción masiva.

En cualquier caso, mal empezamos: Con un Iran que no respeta las reglas del juego y con unos Estados Unidos que no las hacen respetar, sólo cabe suponer que los iranies continuen desarrollando su programa nuclear. Tan sólo queda esperar que el Congreso rechace el acuerdo, y que Obama no vete el rechazo del Congreso.

¿Qué postura asumirá Israel? La única que cabe esperar: Defenderse a toda costa de quienes están empeñados en destruirle a toda costa.

Kim guides rocket firing

North Korea said Monday that leader Kim Jong Un guided the test launches of tactical ballistic rockets aimed at U.S. and South Korean forces, the second such launch drill reported in state media in three days.

It’s Kim’s second reported inspection of firing drills in recent days. KCNA didn’t say when and where the training occurred, but the rockets the country said it fired were likely the suspected Scud missiles that South Korea says the North launched on Sunday as there were no other reported missile and rockets launches by the North on the day.

North Korea has in recent days criticized alleged South Korean artillery firing drills near a disputed maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea that has been the scene of several bloody skirmishes between the rival nations in recent years. North Korea regularly test-fires missiles and artillery, both to refine its weapons and to express its anger over various developments in Seoul and Washington. 

On Monday, Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency said Kim guided the drills, which involved precision-guided missiles and shells, and that he expressed satisfaction over the results. Outside analysts say North Korea has developed a handful of crude nuclear devices and is working toward building a warhead small enough to mount on a long-range missile, although most experts say that goal may take years to achieve.

Scuds... or Fireworks

A Scud missile displayed in Raqqa, Syria, this week by ISIS is “more propaganda than operational” – meaning it is unlikely to pose a military threat, for some reasons that may be convenient to know, just to calm the non-israeli people that may be alarmed:

1. First of all, the missile need fuel (We will not say which one). ¿Do they have? If they do not have fuel, they have no Scud to throw. 
2. Second, the fuel tank of the missile must be filled. And it is not easy. ¿Do they know how to fill it? If they do not have the know-how and tooling to fill it, they have no Scud to throw.
3. Last, but not least, Scud missiles are not fireworks. ¿Do they know how to launch it? If they do not know how, they have no Scud to throw.

¿And what about israeli people? Israeli people has no reason to fear the Scud, as even if the Scud is launched towards Israel, it will never hit any populated place.

North Korea thought to have 200 mobile missile launchers

 

According to the report submitted to the U.S. Congress by the Pentagon, North Korea appears to have accumulated up to 200 so-called transporter erector launchers (TEL), including up to 100 for short-range Scud missiles, 50 for medium-range Nodong missiles and 50 for long-range Musudan missiles, the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) said. (Read more)

 

The battle over Iron Dome

 

Iron Dome, Israel’s short range missile defense system, is the country’s somewhat belated response to the recurring barrages of rockets fired at its population centers. Recently, a number of skeptics have voiced doubts over Israel’s proclaimed success rate of Iron Dome during the recent fighting. This article contextualizes the debate on Iron Dome’s performance and proceeds to discuss its details, using open source information to refute the claims of Iron Dome skeptics.  (Read more)