sábado, 30 de julio de 2016

Polonia debería prepararse para la guerra


En fechas recientes, el Atlantic Council of the United States ha publicado un documento bajo el ISBN: 978-1-61977-474-2, accesible públicamente (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/Arming_for_Deterrence_web_0719.pdf) donde se indica a los actuales dirigentes polacos el camino a seguir para anticiparse a un posible -y cada día más probable- enfrentamiento militar con RusiaLes recomiendo que se lo bajen de internet  y lo lean con atención. Desde luego hay ciertos párrafos que resultan ciertamente inquietantes, sobre todo para los polacos. Se los copio a continuación:

Queda clara la amenaza real de un enfrentamiento militar con Rusia:
This report examines the threat posed by a resurgent Russia before considering NATO’s strategy and posture, focusing particularly on its Northeast region: Poland and the Baltic states. It then considers the implications for Poland and recommends how Polish defense should be reformed to take account of the new reality: That NATO now faces a greater
threat of war in its eastern regions than at any time since the end of the Cold War

Aborda la posibilidad de que Rusia realice un ataque sorpresa:
Russia’s political-military leadership actively 
uses military exercises for launching operations 
and intimidating its neighbors. These exercises 
represent a convenient way of camouflaging intent 
should Moscow decide to launch a surprise attack. 
Turning one of these exercises into an operation 
against one or several of the Baltic states would 
give very little or no early warning time for NATO.

Que la OTAN sería incapaz de contrarrestar en un primer momento:
As it stands, NATO’s defense posture is not strong enough to deter Russia. In part, this is because the Alliance’s decision-making will always be slower than Russia’s. NATO should compensate for this with a larger forward presence, better automated military movements that do not require prior North Atlantic Council approval, and adequate delegated authority to the military commanders, which so far has not been carried out at the level required.

Polonia debería comprometerse a atacar a Rusia hasta el final:
Poland should make clear policy declarations regarding its behavior in the event of Russian incursions and on targeting within Russia. (...) A statement is needed that Poland will immediately and unilaterally come to the aid of the Baltics (and Romania), should they be attacked in any way, pending a NATO-wide decision on Article 5. It should seek analogous declarations for itself, the Baltics, and Romania from the United States, the United Kingdom, and other allies, and reciprocity from Romania, as well. (...)
Poland should aim to join the 
tactical nuclear capability 
scheme within NATO, so 
enabling its F-16s to be 
carriers of tactical nuclear 
ordnance. (...) 
Poland should declare that it reserves the right to make counterattacks deep into Russian territory if Russia ever attacked Poland, notably with the long-range JASSM air launched cruise missiles it will receive from the United States later this year. (...) Poland should publish a potential list of targets, for example in the Kaliningrad OblastKaliningrad city itself is less than 30 km from Poland, while the Pionerski strategic radar is some 60 km distant. (...) Poland should announce that it reserves the right to deploy offensive cyber operations (and not necessarily in response just to cyber attacks). The authorities could also suggest potential targets, which could include the Moscow metro, the St. Petersburg power network, and Russian state-run media outlets such as RT. (...) Poland should declare that, if attacked, it reserves the right to dispatch Special Operations Forces (SOF) into Russian territory such as Kaliningrad, in order to help destroy high-value targets, e.g. the Pantsyr and other missile batteries, which may be difficult to disable by methods such as jamming. (...) Poland should demonstrate the ability independently to target weapons and to launch these forces and capabilities. It should also show the ability to move forces into the Baltics and possibly Romania, in the process demonstrating joint action with relevant elements of US and other allied units.

Acción política:
Poland should undertake firm opposition to any 
EU plans (such as may be contemplated in the 
new Global Strategy on Foreign and Security 
Policy) envisaging an EU military force.

Medidas estratégicas urgentes:
As for immediate needs, Poland should improve 
the overall command and control of its forces, 
plus undertake a number of urgent acquisitions 
to bolster strategic deterrence and tactical preparations. (...) Poland should undertake these urgent procurements using radically different methods to overcome the systemic delays in the past. (...) Poland should ensure that all battlefield radios are digital and encrypted. Indeed, it should ensure that all Ministry and Armed Forces communications are secure, as many doubts on this matter persist. (...) Poland has been contemplating the Extended Range (900 km) JASSM cruise missile. If it places an order, it will be the first US ally to operate the Extended Range variant. Poland should expedite this procurement, mobilizing the support required in the US Congress. (...) Poland should address its capacity for independent targeting of key weapons, JASSM missiles, and others. (...) Poland should plan and train for the dispersal of the F-16s and weaponry to temporary, random airfields and roads in Poland itself, in the Baltics, and Romania. (...) 
The Naval Strike Missile (NSM) coastal missiles 
launched from two batteries of onshore mobile 
launchers serve primarily to interdict surface 
shipping, but can also have a strategic dimension. 
With a 185 km range, if properly targeted they can 
also destroy onshore targets, say in Kaliningrad.
 Poland should rapidly augment its targeting radars for longer distances. It should also order more of these NSM missiles 
and launcher. Its two batteries cost $132 million in total. Incremental missiles were recently reported to cost somewhat over $2 million each. (...) Poland should contract with NATO-member militaries or civilian firms to develop cyber capabilities and train Polish cyber troops, complementing measures already underway. Poland should develop an information warfare capability using social media and other channels, to counter Russia’s active propaganda campaign, which uses overt methods and its numerous “trolls.” (...) Poland should seek to accelerate licensed production of the 1,000 Spike ATGMs, ordered from PGZ’s Mesko plant for delivery in 2017-20. Some of its 670 Rosomak wheeled Infantry Fighting Vehicles can transport Spike-equipped troops (and 307 more Rosomaks are on order). If needed, Poland should order rival ATGM systems for faster delivery. (...) Poland should immediately order an adequate number of the new Polish Piorun missiles, to supplement the approximately 2,000 Polish Grom missiles currently held (400 launchers, with only 5 missiles per launcher). (...) A network of all-weather shelters should be constructed, with stores of food, fuel, weapons and ammunition, medical kit, and communications gear.

Plan de movilización:
Poland should plan mobilization (including transport to northeastern Poland, the Baltics, and Romania) for both its Regular and Reserve units. Mobilization domestically of the new Territorials should also be on the agenda. (...) Poland should demonstrate readiness by frequent exercises. Interchangeable and mutually redundant channels should be planned. Railways, aircraft from the national carrier LOT and other sources, civilian road vehicles, and Polish and non-Polish ferries should all be included, in addition to the military’s own resources. (...) Transport for the Territorials should include use of local civilian 4WD and other vehicles. Mobilization and transfers east from the center and west of the country should be planned and publicly rehearsed. (...) Radical change is needed to the archaic culture regarding MRO, which calls for most of it to be done by Poland’s military. Civilian contractors should be brought in to replace over-stretched or badly run military servicing units.

sábado, 16 de julio de 2016

Corea del Sur, entre la espada y la pared


En los últimos días, China ha mostrado su profundo desacuerdo con el próximo despliegue de sistemas de defensa antimisiles THAAD en Corea del Sur.


Esto pone a Corea del Sur en un serio aprieto, pues le va a ser muy difícil mantener al mismo tiempo los lazos económicos con China, y las relaciones militares con Estados Unidos.


Sin embargo, con la aceptación del despliegue del THAAD en su territorio, Corea del Sur ha dejado claro que la política exterior y la cooperación militar con los EE.UU. es más importante que las relaciones normales con Pekín.


Como resultado, ahora Corea del Sur queda entre la espada y la pared, pues tanto China como Rusia consideran el THAAD como un escudo concebido no tanto para detener los misiles de Corea del Norte, como para detener los misiles procedentes de China y Rusia.


En cualquier caso China ya ha anunciado que tomará medidas militares, y se baraja la posibilidad que despliegue sistemas costeros de misiles, complementados con buques de guerra y submarinos armados con misiles de crucero. 





Corea del Sur y EEUU acuerdan reforzar la cooperación


Corea del Sur y Estados Unidos han acordado intensificar su cooperación militar para detener la escalada belicista de Corea del Norte.

El acuerdo ha tenido lugar durante una reunión mantenida ayer en Hawaii entre Kim Hong-kyun, representante especial surcoreano para asuntos de paz y seguridad, y Sung Kim, representante especial norteamericano para asuntos relacionados con la política norcoreana.

Tras la reunión, ambos representantes manifestaron estar de acuerdo en reforzar la cooperación entre los Estados Unidos y Corea del Sur, a fin de lograr una capacidad de disuasión efectiva frente a las ambiciones militares de Corea del Norte.

Tambien coincidieron al afirmar que la desnuclearización de Corea del Norte es un objetivo compartido no sólo por ambos países sino tambien por el resto de la comunidad internacional.

Rusia desplegará los S-400 en Crimea


Según lo declarado ayer viernes por el subcomandante del 18º regimiento antiaéreo de misiles de la 31ª división de Defensa Aérea rusa, teniente coronel Evgueni Oléinikov, Rusia desplegará misiles tierra-aire S-400 en Crimea para contrarrestar un posible ataque por fuerzas de la OTAN.


Más concretamente, se enviará a la ciudad de Feodosia un regimiento completo del sistema de misiles tierra-aire S-400 TriumphEste sistema es una versión actualizada del S-300 elaborada por el consorcio ruso Almaz Antei, y está diseñado para abatir aeronaves, y misiles balísticos, objetivos hipersónicos y otros medios de ataque aéreo.


Un regimiento completo como el que se va a instalar en Feodosia consta de 2 puestos de mando móvil + 16 lanzaderas + 64 misiles.

Rusia se prepara para la guerra


Según lo declarado ayer viernes por el director de Tupolev PJSC, Alexander Konyukhov, el Ministerio de Defensa de Rusia recibirá en breve siete bombarderos estratégicos Tupolev Tu-95MS, capacitados para transportar misiles crucero aire-tierra de largo alcance.


El Tu-95MS es una versión modificada del bombardero estratégico Tu-95. Está propulsado por cuatro motores, alcanza una velocidad máxima de 830 Km/H y puede volar con una autonomía de hasta 12.000 Km, que aumentan hasta los 16.000 con un repostaje en vuelo.


Según fuentes oficiales, la Fuerza Aerea Rusa ha recibido en los dos últimos años un total de tres aparatos y tiene encargada la producción de veinte aparatos adicionales que deberían entregarse antes de que expire el presente año.


En adición a los mencionados bombarderos y según lo declarado ayer por el Ministro de Defensa Ruso Sergei Shoigu, las fuerzas armadas de Rusia han recibido a lo largo del segundo trimestre del presente año una brigada de misiles balísticos Iskander-M (compuesta de 12 TELs + 12 vehículos de transporte + 48 misiles) y un regimiento de misiles tierra-aire S-400 (compuesto de 16 lanzaderas + 64 misiles).



miércoles, 13 de julio de 2016

Rusia: ¿Preparándose para la Tercera Guerra Mundial?


Desde hace unos días, el ejército ruso está llevando a cabo ejercicios de simulación ante una hipotética agresión que exija la movilización inmediata de las fuerzas nucleares estratégicas.

Los ejercicios se están realizando con lanzaderas móviles de misiles Topol, Topol-M y Yars, y el personal a cargo de los misiles está haciendo prácticas de reubicación de las lanzaderas móviles, prácticas de preparación de los misiles para un lanzamiento inminente, y prácticas para localizar y neutralizar comandos de saboteadores que pudieran atentar contra los convoyes que transportan los misiles.

Si bien no es la primera vez que el ejército ruso lleva a cabo este tipo de ejercicios, en esta ocasión adquieren si cabe un tinte más dramático no ya porque se realicen para anticiparse a una posibilidad que de producirse llevaría al mundo a una catástrofe sin precedentes, sino porque la situación en el mundo y más concretamente en el este de Europa está lejos de ser estable y se hace cada vez menos predecible. Esperemos que reine la cordura y se imponga la paz, pero sinceramente lo veo complicado.

lunes, 11 de julio de 2016

Iran says it will continue ballistic missile tests


Iran said Saturday it would continue its ballistic missile program after UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon said the missile tests were not in the spirit of the country’s landmark nuclear deal with world powers. In comments published on Iran’s foreign ministry website Saturday, spokesman Bahram Ghasemi said that “Iran will strongly continue its missile program based on its own defense and national security calculations.”. (Read more)

Israel: Again Threatened...


Tens of thousands of missiles located across the Middle East are ready to strike Israel at a moment’s notice, Lieutenant Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) Brigadier General Hossein Salami threatened on Friday: “Today, more than 100,000 missiles are ready to fly from Lebanon,” adding that in addition there are “tens of thousands of destructive long-range missiles” in the region ready to wipe Israel off the map. (Read more)

North Korea: DPRK warns of retaliation


North Korea on Monday issued more threats against its enemies, this time unspecified "powerful" measures over a US plan to deploy an advanced missile defense system in South Korea. (http://billsinsider.com/2016/07/11/223013-dprk-warns-of-retaliation-against-thaad-deployment-by/)

China’s quiet space warfare


Last June 29, China quietly launched a sophisticated military spy satellite into outer space, marking a significant step in anti-satellite development. Dubbed “Experiment 02,” the satellite is China’s second anti-satellite weapon in the near earth orbit zone, to grab and destroy any other satellites vital to indispensable military communication and weapons’ guidance. (Read more)

U.S. To Offer Russia Extension To Nuclear Disarmament Treaty


The United States could offer Russia an extension to the New START nuclear disarmament treaty, taking the decision to renew the deal out of the hands of the next U.S. administration, the Washington Post newspaper reported Monday. (Read more)

Russia may test-fire Sarmat missile near Hawaii


Russia has started large-scale preparations for flight tests of the new “Sarmat” heavy intercontinental ballistic missile which is set to join the service by 2018. The former Chief of Staff of the Strategic Missile Forces, Viktor Esin, said that the missile will replace the most powerful RS-20V Voevoda (according to NATO classification — SS-18 Satan) ballistic complexes. (Read more)