North Korean ICBMs: ¿From The Parade To The Test?

Among the new weapon systems put on display by North Korea two months ago were the Hwasong-12 Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) the Pukguksong-2 Medium-Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM), a new precision Scud variant, and an improved coastal defense cruise missile, all of which have appeared on the testing grounds in recent weeks.

However, North Korea has yet to test his liquid-fueled KN-08 and KN-14 ICBMs (Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles): North Korea has been exclusively testing missiles that appeared in a military parade earlier this year, raising serious questions about what threat from North Korea is getting ready next.

North Korea has said as much “The series of recent strategic weapons tests show that we are not too far away from test-firing an intercontinental ballistic missile,” the Rodong Sinmun, the official paper of the ruling party, said Saturday. In addition to its long-range missile aspirations, the North is also interested in developing a diverse arsenal of missiles for a complex variety of combat contingencies.

So, what is North Korea’s next move? “I suppose one way to think about it would be to look at the April 15 parade again,” Joshua Pollack, a leading arms expert, told The Daily Caller News Foundation. Even when the North has yet not tested the suspected solid-fueled, canister-launched ICBM seen during the parade, the recent string of weapons testing suggests that a test of some type of ICBM is coming soon.

ICBM Modernization: Challenges and Opportunities

A 2014 RAND Corp. study found that sustaining the current Minuteman III force with gradual upgrades is a relatively inexpensive way to retain current ICBM (Inter Continental Ballistic Missile) capabilities. The study also found that a new ICBM system would likely cost two to three times as much as incremental modernization and sustainment of the current ICBM system.

One constraint on the lifespan of the current system is the declining quantity of missile bodies due to required annual test launches. The Air Force conducts three tests per year, and the ICBM system program office has recommended increasing that to four times annually. It means a force of 420 operational ICBMs is not sustainable beyond 2030 without new units and the entire missile asset will be depleted by 2135, RAND said.

China's new developments on ICBMs: A brief look

DF-31/31A

• China’s military recently carried out a third test of a long-range DF-31A ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) capable of hitting the United States with nuclear warheads. U.S. officials with access to intelligence reports said the flight test took place July 24 in China and highlights Beijing’s large-scale nuclear force buildup.
• According to intelligence reports, China's military has “more than 15” DF-31A launchers for the solid-fueled, single-warhead ICBM that has a range greater than 6,835 miles (12.658 Km). Regarding warheads, some missile specialists say the DF-31A is capable of carrying up to five nuclear warheads.
• The Pentagon’s 2011 annual report on China’s military stated that China is continuing to modernize its nuclear forces by enhancing silo-based ICBMs and adding harder-to-detect mobile missile. “In recent years, the road-mobile, solid-propellant [DF-31 and DF-31A] intercontinental range ballistic missiles have entered service,” the report said, adding that the DF-31 A “can reach most locations within the continental United States.”

DF-41 and JL-2/2A

• The July 24 DF-31A test came exactly a year after the Chinese conducted what U.S. officials said was one of the first flight tests of a new longer-range ICBM called the DF-41, which is expected to be China’s first long-range missile capable of carrying multiple warheads (up to 10 nuclear warheads).
• About this matter, Rick Fisher (China military affairs specialist at the International Assessment and Strategy Center) says: "The DF-31A fleet will soon be joined by an initial force of up to 36 JL-2 or JL-2A submarine-launched nuclear missiles within the next year, and these will be followed by multiple warhead or MIRV capable DF-41 road mobile ICBMs.”

MIRVs and decoy warheads

• China is developing Multiple-Independently targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) for its missiles and also has used decoy warheads designed to fool U.S. missile defense sensors.
• A recently published report by the Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center concluded “China has the most active and diverse ballistic missile development program in the world. It is developing and testing offensive missiles, forming additional missile units, qualitatively upgrading missile systems, and developing methods to counter ballistic missile defenses.” 

North Korean missiles likely fake

Government experts and independent researchers say North Korean missiles that were paraded in Pyongyang in late July are "almost certainly" fake.

NBC News space and missile expert James Oberg, who witnessed North Korea's failed Unha-3 rocket launch in April 2012, pointed to the "undulating skin" seen on a warhead as evidence that it was bogus.

The skin on that part of a long-range missile needs to be very smooth to prevent turbulence and also to keep the missile on course, Oberg said. Furthermore, no evidence of crucial "retro rockets" was seen on the Hwasong-13, according to aerospace engineer and former RAND Corp. military analyst Markus Schiller. Retro rockets are necessary for Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) like the Hwasong to reach altitudes needed to strike far-off targets, NBC reports.

Russia Tests ‘Missile Defense Killer’

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who oversees the defense industry, hailed Thursday’s tests as a success and dubbed the new ICBM a “missile defense killer.”: “Neither current nor future American missile defense systems will be able to prevent that missile from hitting a target dead on,” he said, during an event organized by the ruling United Russia party. (Read more)

North Korea Condemns US Ballistic Missile Test

The US fired on May 22 a Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from a California base as part of the country’s test flight aimed at determining weapon accuracy. The original test scheduled for mid-April was delayed amid tensions with North Korea. (Read more)

 

 

La tecnología de la SDI sigue suscitando dudas

 

Tres décadas desde que Ronald Reagan lanzara su Iniciativa de Defensa Estratégica, el sistema defensivo antimisiles sigue en activo, y está basado en el uso de misiles interceptores SM-3 colocados a bordo de buques de guerra cuando no ocultos bajo tierra en silos de Alaska y California.

 

Si bien su tecnología es de última generación, este sistema defensivo antimisiles continúa paradójicamente suscitando algunas dudas basadas en la presunta vulnerabilidad de su tecnología, que vamos a ver a continuación.

 

1) En las pruebas efectuadas periódicamente, los interceptores SM-3 (los mismos que utiliza la OTAN para su escudo antimisiles) han alcanzado el blanco en 25 de 30 tests.

 

2) Por si este 20% de errores no fuera suficiente, algunos científicos han alertado ante la posibilidad de que ese porcentaje pudiera aumentar con facilidad, haciendo uso de técnicas de distracción tales como lanzar una batería de misiles, atacar y destruir los radares de control, o simplemente recurrir al lanzamiento de señuelos. Esta no es una posibilidad carente de fundamento, pues incluso los grandes defensores del programa, incluidos los oficiales navales que prestaron servicio en los buques de defensa antimisiles, dicen que los señuelos plantean un reto difícil de superar.

 

 

 

Estados Unidos: Lanzamiento de prueba de un Minuteman III desde la Base Vandenberg de la USAF

 

Fuentes oficiales de la Base Vandenberg de la USAF han confirmado el lanzamiento el pasado miércoles 22, de un misil Minuteman III. El misil recorrió 4.200 millas sobre el Pacífico, en lo que no es más que un lanzamiento rutinario para asegurar el correcto funcionamiento de los sistemas de defensa con ICBMs. El lanzamiento estaba programado para el pasado mes de Abril, pero el Secretario de Defensa Chuck Hagel decidió posponerlo ante la preocupación por la posibilidad de que fuera malinterpretado por Corea del Norte.

 

 

¿Qué es el Minuteman III?

El Minuteman III es un ICBM (Inter Continental Ballistic Missile - Misil Balístico Intercontinental) de lanzamiento terrestre fabricado por Boeing. Con un peso de 32.000 Kg. y un alcance efectivo cercano a 10.000 kilómetros, cada unidad cuesta 7 millones de dólares y está propulsada por tres motores de combustible sólido y un motor de combustible líquido para corregir la trayectoria o lanzar varias cabezas individuales hacia distintos objetivos. Entró en servicio en 1970 y las unidades que se fabricaron entre 1970 y 1978 se fueron mejorando para incrementar la precisión y la carga. Actualmente el Gobierno de Estados Unidos dispone de 450 Minuteman III en silos situados alrededor de las bases aéreas de F. E. Warren (Wyoming), Malmstrom (Montana) y Minot (Dakota del Norte), con un total de cabezas nucleares en torno a 800 unidades. Las cabezas nucleares son del tipo W-78, con una potencia explosiva de 350 kt cada una.