North Korea: Red Alert

The Biden administration says two North Korean missile launches in recent weeks were test firings of a powerful new long-range ICBM, and warned that a full-range test could soon follow.

The tests were of a missile reportedly larger than an ICBM North Korea launched in 2017 that was assessed to be capable of reaching the United States.

American missile defence and reconnaissance forces in the Pacific have been placed in a state of “enhanced readiness” in preparation for a full-range test, a senior administration official said.

The official outlined the US intelligence assessment of the recent launches on the condition of anonymity: “The purpose of these tests, which did not demonstrate ICBM range, was likely to evaluate this new system before conducting a test at full range in the future, potentially disguised as a space launch,” said Pentagon press secretary John Kirby in a statement.

North Korea has claimed the March 4 and February 26 launches were merely to test cameras to be installed on a future spy satellite. Multiple UN Security Council resolutions prohibit North Korea from firing ICBMs, and the US will announce a new round of sanctions meant to make it more difficult for the country to access technology needed for its weapons programmes, the official said.

The 2017 launch was part of a series of tests that prompted then-president Donald Trump to threaten North Korea’s leaders with “fire and fury” and brought the two countries to the brink of more serious conflict.

The new missile was first revealed to the public in 2020 during celebrations marking the 75th birthday of North Korea’s Communist Party in Pyongyang.

(Source: AP)

North Korea advances hidden into the fog

Another country that does not rest nor let rest: The multiple launch of tuesday 14th comes a day before the South holds parliamentary elections, and at a time when the world’s attention has been largely focussed on the Covid-19 pandemic, which Pyongyang insists it has so far escaped.

Taking advantage of the pandemic of Covid-19, North Korea has been carrying out tests of new advanced multiple launch rocket systems; but in this case it is suspected that has tested a new type of surface-to-ship cruise missile designed to hit “any enemy Warship”.

This launch takes place just when the pandemy of Covid-19 is hitting the aircraft carriers USS Carl Vinson, USS Ronald Reagan and other US Navy ships, and a day before the 108th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, grandfather of the current leader Kim Jong Un.

The missiles flew some 200 kilometres over the Sea of Japan, which analysts said was an improvement on a 2015 test that flew only 100 kilometres. 

Downing down NK missiles: The need of a new approach

Concerned that the missile defense system designed to protect American cities is insufficient by itself to deter a North Korean attack, the Trump administration is expanding its strategy to also try to stop Pyongyang’s missiles before they get far from Korean airspace.

Congressional documents are actually talking about “additional investments” in “boost-phase missile defense.” The goal is to hit long-range missiles at their point of greatest vulnerability: while their engines are firing and the vehicles are stressed to the breaking point, and before their warheads are deployed.

In interviews, defense officials, along with top scientists and senior members of Congress, describe the effort as a response to the unexpected progress that North Korea has made in developing ICBMs capable of delivering a nuclear bomb to the continental United States: “It is an all-out effort,” said Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, who returned from a lengthy visit to South Korea last month, convinced that the United States needed to do far more to counter North Korea. “There is a fast-emerging threat, a diminishing window, and a recognition that we can’t be reliant on one solution.”

One first approach is to have stealth fighters such as the F-22 or the F-35 scramble from nearby bases in South Korea and Japan at the first sign of North Korean launch preparations. The jets would carry conventional air-to-air missiles, which are 12 feet long, and fire them at the North Korean long-range missiles after they are launched. But they would have to fly relatively close to North Korea to do that, increasing the chances of being shot down.

A second approach -hinted at in an emergency request to Congress last week for $4 billion to deal with North Korea- envisions the stepped-up use of cyber weapons to interfere with the North’s control systems before missiles are launched. Using cyber weapons to disrupt launches is a radical innovation in missile defense in the past three decades, but in the case of North Korea it is also the most difficult: It requires getting into the missile manufacturing, launch control and guidance systems of a country that makes very limited use of the internet and has few connections to the outside world — most of them through China, and to a lesser degree Russia.

And a third approach is to develop a UAV that would fire potent laser beams at rising missiles. But recent plans would have it make its debut no sooner than 2025 — too late to play a role in the current crisis or the Trump presidency.

9/24: DEFCON 4

Según lo publicado por la organización privada de inteligencia DEFCON Warning System, aunque actualmente no existen amenazas nucleares inminentes contra Estados Unidos, hay acontecimientos que invitan a admitir seriamente la posibilidad de que el Pentágono haya decidido mantener el nivel de alerta en DEFCON 4.

Voy a exponerlas a continuación, si bien quisiera recordar a los lectores que la DEFCON Warning System no está afiliada a ninguna agencia gubernamental. Por tanto, el lector debe hacer sus propias evaluaciones y no confiar ciegamente en DEFCON Warning System para llevar a cabo cualquier planificación estratégica.

Corea del Norte contra Estados Unidos

Las tensiones entre Corea del Norte y los Estados Unidos están aumentando: El intercambio de amenazas es cada vez más frecuente, aunque no parece haber señal alguna de un ataque inminente por parte de cualquiera de los dos países.

No obstante lo anterior, hay que señalar que el nivel de amenaza sigue siendo elevado y cada parte está actualmente a la defensiva, esperando algún tipo de acción por parte del bando opuesto: Estados Unidos ha amenazado con fuego y furia a Corea del Norte en caso de que su líder continúe con su plan de reducir Estados Unidos a cenizas mediante un ataque nuclear, o de que lleve a cabo su amenaza de dar Jaque Mate a Estados Unidos mediante un EMP.

Si el pasado mes de Julio existían dudas de la posibilidad de que Corea del Norte hubiera logrado miniaturizar una ojiva nuclear que pudiese caber dentro de sus misiles, a día de hoy se admite ya que el régimen de Kim Jong-un ha detonado una bomba de hidrógeno que Pyongyang asegura poder montar en sus misiles intercontinentales, en teoría capaces de llegar a Estados Unidos.

Aunque se ha mostrado ya un video calificado como propagandístico en el que se muestra una aparente Bomba H cargada en un aparente misil, para los expertos existen dudas sobre si tal artefacto es real, y si tal aparente misil puede realmente volar. En cualquier caso, Corea del Sur no duda que Corea del Norte pueda montar una ojiva nuclear en un misil y el Gobierno de Estados Unidos baraja la posibilidad de que Corea del Norte posea hasta sesenta bombas nucleares.

Todo lo anterior coloca a los Estados Unidos en peligro de sufrir un ataque directo por parte de Corea del Norte. A este respecto, China ha advertido a Corea del Norte que permanecerá neutral si ésta inicia una guerra contra los Estados Unidos, quien por su parte baraja la conveniencia de iniciar un ataque preventivo sobre Corea del Norte al objeto de neutralizar su capacidad militar. 

Corea del Norte contra Corea del Sur

Corea del Sur está preparándose a la posibilidad de entrar en guerra caliente contra su vecino del norte, y su ejército ha participado a finales de agosto en unos juegos de guerra a gran escala junto con Estados Unidos, lo que indudablemente ha contribuido a elevar aún más la tensión entre ambas coreas. No obstante, desde el nombramiento del nuevo presidente el país empieza a mostrar una postura más débil que con el presidente anterior, y es probable que ello envalentone aun más a Corea del Norte, animándola a proseguir su programa nuclear.

Corea del Norte contra Japón

Recientemente, Corea del Norte lanzó un misil contra Japón, que sobrevoló su espacio aereo antes de caer en el mar. Ese lanzamiento ha reavivado las tensiones en la zona después de un período de calma relativa durante las semanas anteriores, impulsando a Japón a reconsiderar sus capacidades defensivas frente a un posible ataque de Corea del Norte, desplegando un nuevo sistema terrestre de defensa antimisiles.

China contra Estados Unidos

China viene advirtiendo a Estados Unidos que ayudará a Corea del Norte si Estados Unidos lanza un ataque preventivo contra Corea del Norte, y en fechas recientes ha probado otro nuevo misil anti-satélite que constituye una amenaza potencial para Estados Unidos, habida cuenta de su fuerte dependencia de la tecnología satelital.

Irán contra Israel

Irán ha presentado un nuevo misil balístico dotado de MIRVs capaces de alcanzar a Israel.

Estados Unidos con Japón y Corea del Sur

Estados Unidos contempla mejorar la defensa antimisiles de Japón, y el USS Ronald Reagan está llevando a cabo maniobras con fuerzas japonesas y surcoreanas cerca de la Península de Corea.

Rusia con India

Rusia y la India tendrán sus primeros juegos de guerra conjunta en octubre, lo cual servirá para estrechar aún más los existentes lazos militares entre ambas potencias nucleares.

Naciones Unidas con Iran

Las Naciones Unidas se han negado a inspeccionar las instalaciones militares iraníes para cumplir con el acuerdo nuclear, afirmando que tales inspecciones son innecesarias, y es probable que ello envalentone aun más a la república islámica, animándola a acelerar su programa nuclear.

Corea del Norte: nuevo misil antibuque

Corea del Norte está desarrollando sus programas nucleares y de misiles con la meta de fabricar un misil balístico intercontinental, equipado con armas nucleares, que sea capaz de atacar el territorio continental estadounidense.

Siguiendo su programa, ha llevado a cabo durante la madrugada del pasado jueves el lanzamiento de varios misiles de crucero tierra-mar desde su costa este.

Por parte de Corea del Norte se ha omitido el número de misiles disparados, pero el director de seguridad nacional de Corea del Sur, Chung Eui-yong, explicó el viernes que en total dispararon cuatro proyectiles de corto alcance.

De igual modo, portavoces del Estado Mayor Conjunto surcoreano (JCS) informaron a la agencia Yonhap que se trataría de misiles de crucero y no de misiles balísticos como se dijo en un principio, y que los proyectiles recorrieron unos 200 kilómetros antes de caer en aguas del Mar de Japón.

En este caso y en comparación a los distintos tipos de misiles balísticos que Pyongyang ha venido probando recientemente, los proyectiles disparados el jueves son de crucero y están más bien diseñados para atacar buques de guerra.

Pentagon eyes Iran-North Korea

When Iran attempted to launch a cruise missile from a “midget” submarine earlier this week, Pentagon officials saw more evidence of North Korean influence in the Islamic Republic – with intelligence reports saying the submarine was based on a Pyongyang design, the same type that sank a South Korean warship in 2010.

According to U.S. defense officials, Iran was attempting to launch a Jask-2 cruise missile underwater for the first time, but the launch failed. Nonproliferation experts have long suspected North Korea and Iran are sharing expertise when it comes to their rogue missile programs: “The very first missiles we saw in Iran were simply copies of North Korean missiles,” said Jeffrey Lewis, a missile proliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. “Over the years, we've seen photographs of North Korean and Iranian officials in each other's countries, and we've seen all kinds of common hardware.”  

When Iran tested a ballistic missile in late January, the Pentagon said it was based on a North Korean design. Last summer, Iran conducted another missile launch similar to a North Korean Musudan, the most advanced missile Pyongyang has successful tested to date. Defense analysts say North Korea's Taepodong missile looks almost identical to Iran's Shahab: “In the past, we would see things in North Korea and they would show up in Iran. In some recent years, we've seen some small things appear in Iran first and then show up in North Korea and so that raises the question of whether trade -- which started off as North Korea to Iran -- has started to reverse,” Lewis added.  

Iran’s attempted cruise missile launch from the midget submarine in the Strait of Hormuz was believed to be one of the first times Iran has attempted such a feat. In 2015, North Korea successfully launched a missile from a submarine for the first time, and officials believe Tehran is not far behind. During testimony last week, Adm. Harry Harris, the head of American forces in the Pacific, warned the United States has no land-based short- or medium-range missiles because it is a signatory to the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces, or INF, treaty signed in 1987 between Russia and the United States. But Iran and North Korea are under no such constraints: "We are being taken to the cleaners by countries that are not signatories to the INF,” Harris told the House Armed Services Committee late last month. 

Perhaps most worrisome for the United States is that Iran attempted this latest missile launch from a midget sub Tuesday in the narrow and crowded Strait of Hormuz, where much of the world's oil passes each day. Over a year ago, Iran  fired off a number of unguided rockets near the USS Harry Truman aircraft carrier as she passed through the Strait of Hormuz in late December 2015. The U.S. Navy called the incident “highly provocative” at the time and said the American aircraft carrier was only 1,500 yards away from the Iranian rockets.

In July 2016, two days before the anniversary of the nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers, the Islamic Republic attempted to launch a new type of ballistic missile using North Korean technology, according to multiple intelligence officials. It was the first time Iran attempted to launch a version of North Korea’s BM-25 Musudan ballistic missile, which has a maximum range of nearly 2,500 miles, potentially putting U.S. forces in the Middle East and Israel within reach if the problems are fixed.

THAAD seen as capable of intercepting N.K. mid-range missile

The advanced U.S. missile defense system THAAD is believed to be capable of intercepting North Korea's intermediate-range ballistic missiles if it is deployed in South Korea, Seoul's defense chief said Friday.

North Korea claimed Thursday that it has succeeded in test-firing its mid-range missile, boasting of its capacity to hit U.S. forces in the Pacific region. "The deployment of THAAD will help South Korea's move to counter the North's missile threats," Defense Minister Han Min-koo told reporters.

The minister said that more information is needed to check THAAD's capability to intercept the North's mid-range missiles, but generally, the system is believed to be up to the task. Seoul and Washington have been discussing the potential deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery in South Korea, where about 28,500 American troops are stationed.

The allies' move is aimed at countering the North's evolving missile threats amid concerns about the technical progress of North Korea's nuclear and missile programs. On Wednesday, the North fired off what is believed to be two Musudan mid-range missiles, marking its fifth and sixth launches since April. The Musudan missile, with an estimated range of some 3,000 to 4,000 kilometers, could theoretically reach any target in Japan and fly as far as the U.S. territory of Guam.

The North's first five attempts to test-fire the missile failed, but the sixth one flew about 400 kilometers after being launched at a higher angle Wednesday. The North's latest move raises concerns about advances made in the country's nuclear and missile capabilities. Pyongyang is seeking to develop a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting targets on the U.S. mainland. South Korea's military said that it is too early to conclude the North's test was a total success, but experts said that if the North did not launch the missile at a higher angle, it could have traversed on a normal trajectory.

Han said that North Korea could test-fire an ICBM or a submarine-launched missile in a bid to show off its military prowess. "We do not rule out the possibility of an additional nuclear test by North Korea," he said. South Korea is speeding up the development of the indigenous Korea Air and Missile Defense system. A pre-emptive missile destruction system, the so-called Kill Chain, is also under development to detect and strike North Korea's missile and nuclear facilities. The North conducted its fourth nuke test in January and launched a long-range rocket in the following month, drawing international condemnation. The country is banned from using ballistic missile technology under relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions.

Corea del Norte asegura que puede miniaturizar bombas nucleares

Corea del Norte afirmó hoy en sus medios estatales que tiene capacidad para miniaturizar bombas nucleares, lo que de ser cierto permitiría al régimen comunista amenazar de nuevo a los Estados Unidos y a sus aliados en Asia Pacífico.

Más concretamente, la Comisión Nacional de Defensa aseguró en un comunicado que defenderá al país con cabezas atómicas lo suficientemente pequeñas como para ser ensambladas en sus proyectiles: Según un comunicado publicado por la agencia de noticias norcoreana KCNA “Ha pasado largo tiempo desde que empezamos a diversificar y miniaturizar nuestros medios de ataque nuclear... Hemos alcanzado el punto en el que podemos garantizar el más alto nivel de precisión, no solo para misiles de corto y medio alcance, sino tambien para misiles de largo alcance." 

Esto no quiere decir nada ya que si bien es verdad que Corea del Norte ha realizado tres ensayos de detonaciones nucleares desde 2006, lo cierto es que hasta ahora no ha demostrado ser capaz de miniaturizar las bombas para ensamblarlas en proyectiles y es por esto que los expertos mantienen opiniones diversas sobre la fase de desarrollo en la que se encuentra. Ello no obsta para admitir que, en el caso de que Pyongyang logre miniaturizar armas nucleares, éstas podrían suponer una amenaza directa sobre suelo estadounidense gracias a sus misiles de largo alcance. 

Corea del Sur, por su parte, aseguró a principios de año en su Libro Blanco de Defensa que el Norte ha adquirido un nivel tecnológico “significativo” en la miniaturización de cabezas atómicas. De confirmarse que Pyongyang es capaz de fabricar y desplegar misiles nucleares, podrían darse fuertes cambios en la situación de seguridad en el nordeste de Asia, e incluso una escalada armamentística en la región: EEUU, China, Rusia, Japón y Corea del Sur han instado a Corea del Norte a renunciar a su programa de desarrollo de armas nucleares, pero como vemos el régimen comunista ha insistido e insiste en potenciarlo a toda costa, incluso a riesgo de abocarnos a todos al precipicio de una posible -y cada vez más probable- Tercera Guerra Mundial.

Guam Could Get a Missile Shield

Guam's strategic location just 1,500 miles South of Japan's shores make the tiny island a very valuable piece of real estate for the US military and a very enticing target for Pyongyang's missile program. (Read more)

Missile defense in New York

In March, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel announced that in light of renewed North Korean belligerence, including long-range missile testing in violation of international sanctions, the United States will beef up its missile-defense system to protect American cities.

The Defense Intelligence Agency has confirmed it believes Pyongyang has a nuclear weapon small enough to place on a missile. The damage from a missile carrying a nuclear warhead, is unimaginable. The United States already has homeland-defense sites in Alaska and in California; these mainly defend against potential North Korean missiles, which would enter US airspace from the West. 

But what about Iran? It continues to develop its missile program and to defiantly move toward a nuclear-weapons capability even in the face of sanctions. And an Iranian long-range missile would enter US airspace from the East. The current missile-defense system provides some protection from missiles headed toward the East Coast, but the country needs another site to give our military more chances and another angle to successfully intercept a missile headed to U.S. from Iran.

New York’s Fort Drum is considered a leading contender for this prestigious responsibility. Its location in relation to where enemy missiles would be headed makes it ideal, which is why the Pentagon selected it as the new site for a data center to help track such missiles. As Sen. Schumer wrote in a letter to the White House: “Should military experts determine that a new system on the East Coast is necessary, workable and cost effective, Fort Drum and Griffiss Air Force Base are uniquely capable for the job. . . A federal investment for missile interceptors in Upstate New York could create thousands of jobs and significant revenue in local communities, just as similar missile-defense systems have in California and Alaska.”

(Read more...)

North Korea Could Soon Have A Nuclear Missile Able To Reach Seattle

North Korea is making progress on an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering a first-generation nuclear warhead to the continental United States, a leading US think-tank said.

The closely followed 38 North website of the Johns Hopkins University's US-Korea Institute argued that ICBM mock-ups seen at recent military parades in Pyongyang were "less fake" than originally believed.

Numerous experts had widely ridiculed the models of the North's road-mobile KN-08 ICBM seen in 2012 and July this year, with at least one respected aerospace engineer labelling them technically preposterous and a "big hoax". An analysis posted by 38 North disagreed, saying they were consistent with the ongoing development of a missile with a limited intercontinental ability using only existing North Korean technology.

"Elegant or not," the mockups suggest an ability to assemble components and technologies to produce missiles with theoretical ranges of 5,500 kilometres (3,400 miles) to more than 11,000 km. The analysis was co-written by non-proliferation expert Jeffrey Lewis and aerospace engineer John Schilling. The authors noted that glaring discrepancies in KN-08 mock-ups displayed in 2012 had largely disappeared by the time of the July parade. And the new arrangement of welds and rivets was similar to that seen on recovered debris from the North's Unha-3 carrier, which successfully placed a satellite in orbit in December last year.

In a separate, technical paper published in Science and Global Security, Schilling stressed that the KN-08 was still very much a missile in development. Lewis and Schilling's paper referenced recent analysis of satellite imagery indicating that North Korea was upgrading its main missile launch site, possibly to cater to larger, mobile weapons. An initial test of the KN-08 could come "at any time", Schilling said. Missile delivery has often been cited as the main weakness of the North's nuclear weapons programme which, after three tests, is believed to be close to mastering the key technology of warhead miniaturisation. December's satellite launch caused serious concern, but experts stressed that it lacked the re-entry technology needed to bring an ICBM down onto a target.

Nevertheless, Lewis and Schiller said dismissing the mock-ups paraded in Pyongyang would be dangerous. "The simplest explanation here is that the KN-08 is exactly what it appears to be: A developmental road-mobile ICBM of limited capability but still able to threaten the continental United States," they said.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/think-tank-north-korea-could-soon-have-a-nuclear-missile-able-to-reach-seattle-2013-11#ixzz2jm6O7xTB

S. Korea seeks multi-layered missile defense

South Korea will speed up building its own missile defense aimed at low-flying targets, while seeking ways to develop "multi-layered" deterrence against North Korea. 

Seoul has been gradually building an independent, low-tier missile shield called the Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD), with mid-term plans to acquire the latest Patriot missiles and long-range early warning radars.

In addition to the terminal phase system, the defense ministry said it is considering multi-layered defense to effectively strike ballistic missiles coming from different altitudes. "Our military is establishing a low-tier terminal-phase KAMD considering the range of North Korea's incoming ballistic missiles. It was reflected in the military acquisition plan and will be completed faster than expected," ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said in a briefing. "Our military is also looking into various measures to bolster the terminal phase, low-altitude defense to effectively counter North Korea's nuclear and missile threat."

Kim didn't specify weapons systems, but he excluded the Standard Missile-3, which intercepts missiles at an altitude over 400-500 kilometers, from the shopping list. Although there have been calls to adopt the long-range missile defense to establish a multi-layered shield against the North, Seoul's defense ministry has remained cautious over the American missile program as it could spur a regional arms race involving China and further contribute to mounting costs in the national missile program. Kim's remark raised speculation that Seoul is seeking to adopt systems like the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) by Lockheed Martin as a possible next step. THAAD is designed to shoot down short, medium and intermediate ballistic missiles in their terminal phase, using a hit-to-kill method.

Seoul has been pushing to bolster its defense against the communist rival after it successfully fired off a long-range rocket last December. Pyongyang claims the launch was aimed at putting a satellite into orbit, but Seoul and Washington consider it as a covert ballistic-missile technology test. Military experts say operating missile defense at different altitudes could provide enhanced protection against North Korea's mid- and long-range ballistic missiles.

North Korean missiles likely fake

Government experts and independent researchers say North Korean missiles that were paraded in Pyongyang in late July are "almost certainly" fake.

NBC News space and missile expert James Oberg, who witnessed North Korea's failed Unha-3 rocket launch in April 2012, pointed to the "undulating skin" seen on a warhead as evidence that it was bogus.

The skin on that part of a long-range missile needs to be very smooth to prevent turbulence and also to keep the missile on course, Oberg said. Furthermore, no evidence of crucial "retro rockets" was seen on the Hwasong-13, according to aerospace engineer and former RAND Corp. military analyst Markus Schiller. Retro rockets are necessary for Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) like the Hwasong to reach altitudes needed to strike far-off targets, NBC reports.

South Korea: Mid-term defense program focuses on missile defense against N. Korea

 

Seoul has been gradually building an independent, low-tier missile shield called the Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) since 2006 by acquiring Patriot missiles and long-range early warning radars. The budget draft also includes the additional purchase of PAC-2 missile interceptors and upgrading the current system to PAC-3 to deter North Korean missiles. After Pyongyang successfully launched a long-range rocket last December and conducted its third nuclear test in February, Seoul has been speeding up to establish a pre-emptive missile destruction system, so-called "Kill Chain," to detect and strike North Korea's missile and nuclear facilities. The Kill Chain is designed to detect signs of impending missiles or nuclear attacks from the communist country and launch pre-emptive strikes to eliminate the threat by using its advanced cruise and ballistic missiles to support its present missile defense system. (Read more)

Images show construction halt at North Korean missile launch site

 

An eight-month construction standstill at a North Korean site meant to launch bigger and better long-range rockets may signal Pyongyang is slowing or even stopping development of larger rockets, according to a new analysis of recent satellite imagery.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/07/23/images-show-construction-halt-at-north-korean-missile-launch-site/#ixzz2ZsSKsSgc