El acuerdo con Iran, violado desde el principio

Como ustedes ya saben, tras 20 meses de negociaciones Iran ha accedido el pasado mes de Julio a firmar un acuerdo con el grupo P5+1, para limitar sus actividades nucleares a cambio del levantamiento de las sanciones económicas.

Sin embargo, numerosos analistas consideran insuficientes las garantías que ofrece el acuerdo, al objeto de evitar que Iran se convierta en una nueva potencia nuclear. Más concretamente, se temen que el acuerdo suponga "de facto" un balón de oxígeno para aquellos que están comprometidos a borrar a Israel de la faz de la tierra.

¿Es posible que haya motivos fundados para desconfiar de Iran... tan pronto? Vamos a exponer a continuación algunas realidades inquietantes, que conviene conocer, y luego juzguen ustedes.

El pasado Miércoles 29 de Julio, El Secretario de Estado norteamericano John Kerry afirmó que el General de División del Ejército Irani Quassem Soleimani, dirigente del Al-Quds Force, a quien se atribuye haber colaborado en el asesinato de más de 500 soldados norteamericanos en Irak a manos de las milicias chiies y de ayudar a defender al Presidente Sirio Bashar al Assad, nunca podría viajar fuera de Iran,  en virtud de los términos del acuerdo. Sin embargo, el acuerdo ya había sido violado pues Soleimani estaba ya en Irak, entrenando a las milicias chiies para la lucha contra el Estado Islámico.

Posteriormente, el Viernes 7 de Agosto los medios de comunicación iraníes confirmaron que Soleimani estaba en Rusia, reuniéndose con el Presidente Ruso Vladimir Putin. Nueva violación del acuerdo. ¿Qué estaba tratando con Putin? Todo apunta a la venta de misiles Scud, a la operación de los S-300 que se está ultimando esta misma semana en Moscú, y a un hipotético acuerdo de colaboración para continuar desarrollando un programa militar basado en armas de destrucción masiva.

En cualquier caso, mal empezamos: Con un Iran que no respeta las reglas del juego y con unos Estados Unidos que no las hacen respetar, sólo cabe suponer que los iranies continuen desarrollando su programa nuclear. Tan sólo queda esperar que el Congreso rechace el acuerdo, y que Obama no vete el rechazo del Congreso.

¿Qué postura asumirá Israel? La única que cabe esperar: Defenderse a toda costa de quienes están empeñados en destruirle a toda costa.

Report warns MANPADS may be loose in Syria

The Syrian government’s shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles and launchers could imperil civil aviation if they fall into the hands of terror groups, according to an independent report examining the global proliferation of portable missiles.

Citing video and photo evidence from opposition forces, media and official accounts, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) study says some portable launchers and missiles have been seized by opposition forces during battles with Syrian troops, while others have been smuggled in to rebel fighters from neighboring countries.

The 88-page report warns about man-portable air-defense systems, also known as MANPADS, in the arsenal of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government. U.S. officials have estimated the Syrian government has as many as 20,000 MANPADS, compact missile launchers with the range and explosive power to attack low-flying planes and helicopters. Syria’s anti-aircraft missile inventory is comparable in size to that amassed by Libyan forces before the 2011 ouster of Moammar Gadhafi.

The FAS study cites the widespread looting of anti-aircraft weapons that occurred after Gadhafi’s fall and the mass ransacking of Iraqi weapons depots after the U.S. invasion in 2003 as evidence that Syria’s missiles are equally vulnerable. Portable anti-aircraft missiles have most often been used by non-government forces in conflict zones such as Iraq, where U.S. aircraft were targeted and sometimes struck by militants. Civilian passenger flights have never been threatened by shoulder-fired missiles in the U.S., but there have been nearly a dozen lethal strikes over the past decade in Asia and Africa.

The FAS report said the terrorist group al-Shabab in Somalia used an SA-18 missile to shoot down a Belarusian cargo aircraft departing from Mogadishu in 2007. Many of the portable launchers displayed by Syrian rebel groups on the Internet appear to be decades-old models such as Russian-made SA-7s — similar to ones found in Libya after Gadhafi’s ouster. Unlike Libya, Syria’s military has a larger supply of newer and longer-range models supplied from Russia, and as a result, Syrian rebels also appear to have seized some new-model Russian missile launchers.

SAS hunting Syrian missiles

British special forces were last night hunting Syrian missiles in readiness for Allied strikes which could start as early as tomorrow night.

Cruise missile attacks and RAF raids are expected in response to the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons. A military source said: “It is vital they find every missile site that could threaten British ships or RAF jets and they will probably be taken out by missiles fired from offshore. The risk of capture to these special forces units is off the scale and nobody can be trusted in Syria.”

The British hunt for missiles and chemical weapons – which includes the SAS, Special Boat Service, Special Reconnaissance Regiment and MI6 spies – is one of the most hazardous in modern times as they are up against Assad’s forces as well as some rebel elements. At the top of the hit list are the President’s sophisticated long-range mobile missile batteries – some of which could be used against jets.

The Navy will spearhead any UK operation against Assad, followed by the RAF, both working with US and French forces, but regular troops will not be sent in. It is thought nuclear submarine HMS Tireless has been repositioned in the Mediterranean in readiness to launch Tomahawk cruise missiles against Assad’s military.

Syria: Anti-Tank Weapons sent to rebels

The Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGMs), which are portable and can be shoulder or tripod mounted, set the stage for a possible shift in the war, especially in the upcoming months when U.S. and European aid is expected to increase.

Although Assad’s army also has ATGMs, they pose a minimal threat to the rebel ground forces, which don’t have tanks. In the oppinion of Steven Bucci, former assistant secretary of defense under Donald Rumsfeld and senior defense analyst at The Heritage Foundation, "...the  anti-tank missiles will not be a game changer but will buy the time the rebels need to hold off Assad’s forces".

(This video posted to YouTube on July 21, 2013 is one of numerous videos being studied by intelligence and national security analysts, and shows a Milan ATGM being assembled by rebels in an undisclosed location in Syria.)

Syria: Missile Stockpile Half Depleted

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has run through nearly half his stockpile of advanced Iranian- and Russian-made missiles during his two-year long battle against rebel forces, according to Israel’s leading missile analyst Uzi Rubin. (Read more)

Siria: Incertidumbre sobre la autoría del ataque a un arsenal de misiles Yakhont

 

Opositores al régimen del presidente sirio han señalado que no fueron sus tropas sino fuerzas extranjeras las que han destruído en fechas recientes un arsenal de misiles rusos antibuque Yakhont almacenados en la base militar de Safira, cerca de la ciudad portuaria de Latakia.

 

 

Sobre la transcendencia del ataque merece la pena recordar que los misiles supersónicos Yakhont tienen un alcance de 300 kilómetros, una ojiva explosiva de 250 kilogramos, y se desplazan con una velocidad superior al doble de la velocidad del sonido. (340 m/s x 2 = 680 m/s)

 

 

Los insurgentes han puntualizado que la ferocidad del ataque no se corresponde con el poder de fuego y la capacidad de las fuerzas insurgentes, sino mas bien con la potencia de fuego del ejército de Israel. Esta hipótesis ha sido desmentida sin embargo por el ministro de Defensa de Israel, Moshé Yaalón, quien se ha defendido de las acusaciones de los rebeldes sirios en los siguientes términos: "Hace mucho tiempo que venimos diciendo que no nos estamos implicando en la sangrienta guerra civil en Siria. Hemos trazado nuestras líneas rojas y nos mantenemos en ellas".

 

 

Técnicamente en guerra con Siria, Israel ha pasado décadas en un estancamiento estable con Damasco bajo el gobierno de la familia Assad y ha sido reticente a intervenir abiertamente en el conflicto que sacude a Siria.

War of words over anti-aircraft missiles could escalate

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to warn that should Russia deliver the system to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the S-300 ”is likely to draw us into a response and could send the region deteriorating into war”. Also, Israel’s Defence Minister, Moshe Yaalon, and Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz have said Israel would not hesitate to destroy the S-300 system rather than see it in Syrian hands. (Read more)