North Korea: Red Alert

The Biden administration says two North Korean missile launches in recent weeks were test firings of a powerful new long-range ICBM, and warned that a full-range test could soon follow.

The tests were of a missile reportedly larger than an ICBM North Korea launched in 2017 that was assessed to be capable of reaching the United States.

American missile defence and reconnaissance forces in the Pacific have been placed in a state of “enhanced readiness” in preparation for a full-range test, a senior administration official said.

The official outlined the US intelligence assessment of the recent launches on the condition of anonymity: “The purpose of these tests, which did not demonstrate ICBM range, was likely to evaluate this new system before conducting a test at full range in the future, potentially disguised as a space launch,” said Pentagon press secretary John Kirby in a statement.

North Korea has claimed the March 4 and February 26 launches were merely to test cameras to be installed on a future spy satellite. Multiple UN Security Council resolutions prohibit North Korea from firing ICBMs, and the US will announce a new round of sanctions meant to make it more difficult for the country to access technology needed for its weapons programmes, the official said.

The 2017 launch was part of a series of tests that prompted then-president Donald Trump to threaten North Korea’s leaders with “fire and fury” and brought the two countries to the brink of more serious conflict.

The new missile was first revealed to the public in 2020 during celebrations marking the 75th birthday of North Korea’s Communist Party in Pyongyang.

(Source: AP)

The countries of the South China Sea area prepare for a Naval War

Escalating tensions in the South China Sea has resulted in several countries in that region to strengthen their naval capabilities, as demonstrated by some facts:

In May 2019, Philippine Navy announced its plans to buy 25-30 warships including destroyers to modernize and increase its existing fleet by 2030.

In December 2019, China announced its plans to build two guided-missile Type 055 and Type 052D destroyers that will be ready for battle service by 2021.

In January 2020, China presented its first fourth-generation guided-missile destroyer "Nanchang" intended be used as aircraft carrier escort.

In March 2020, Japan announced its plans to build its second Maya class destroyer that will be equipped with the Aegis defense system and will exhibit ballistic missile defense capability. The first Maya class destroyer was launched in 2019 and it is expected to be commissioned in a few months.

In May 2020, Australia also concluded its Air Warfare Destroyer program by commissioning the Hobart Class guided missile Aegis capable HMAS Sydney V destroyer. Australia is expected to purchase defense systems and other technological support worth billions to support the upgradation of the latest fleet.

Indian Navy has under construction four 7300 tons destroyers at Mazagon Docks in Mumbai, and the Indian government has signed a deal to acquire advanced sensor and weapon systems package for nearly USD 800 million to arm these under-construction warships.

Some other small nations with limited capabilities in shipbuilding are purchasing destroyers from other markets such as China, Europe, Japan, South Korea or United States.

Lockheed Martin to hire an AEGIS Combat System Test Engineer/Coordinator

Position is that of a Test Engineer/Coordinator responsible for the installation, integration and maintenance testing of weapons systems aboard AEGIS ships while undergoing modernization at multiple continental United States and international locations.

Provides AEGIS Combat System operations and testing expertise in support of Naval Surface Warfare Center, Port Hueneme Division, with emphasis on the testing and evaluation of the AEGIS Weapon System Modernization and all connecting system interfaces.

Read more:

https://www.glassdoor.es/Empleo/san-diego-test-engineer-empleos-SRCH_IL.0,9_IC1147311_KO10,23.htm?rdserp=true&jl=3554438598&guid=000001725b49dd11bb5ba18432119487&pos=103&src=GD_JOB_AD&srs=EI_JOBS&s=21&ao=877608

¿What if all the wolves decide to attack now?

With a forced aircraft carrier in port and nuclear missile crews hit by Covid-19, the United States are now facing the possibility of a large-scale opportunistic attack, taking advantage of the drop in defenses on all fronts: According to Hans Kristensen, a nuclear weapons expert at the Federation of American Scientists, all US nuclear facilities except one have been affected by the virus.

Fortunately, the Pentagon has been completely proactive in establishing a "bubble" system in early March, creating two separate operational teams for submarines and nuclear missile silos. However, it is worth considering to what extent these measures should have been adopted previously, considering that on Thursday 9 the Newsweek magazine published a map showing that cases of coronavirus had appeared in 150 military bases.

In addition to what was reported by Newsweek, it is known that four aircraft carriers have also been reached, among which the aircraft carrier USS Roosevelt stands out, forced to dock in Guam for a long period due to an outbreak that has affected 416 of the 4.800 on board . The other three aircraft carriers affected have been USS Reagan, docked in Japan, and USSs Vinson and Nimitz, both under maintenance in Washington state.

Perhaps the United States have done the big mistake in being so transparent, because nature shows us time after time that wolves get emboldened as more weakness they perceive in their prey. ¿Will China take advantage to expand its military presence further into the Pacific? ¿Will Russia fail to take advantage of this golden opportunity to strengthen its military presence in the Arctic? Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, North Korea... ¿Will all of them fail to seize this opportunity to deliver the great blow to their eternal and hated enemies? ¿Or perhaps are all of them just waiting for the best moment to deliver the great blow, when the United States will show its maximum level of weakness? I prefer not imagine it. In that case, May God mercy all of us. Good afternoon, and good luck.

Russia’s NC3 and Early Warning Systems

In this essay, Leonid Ryabikhin argues that distrust, misunderstanding and concern prevail in US/NATO and Russia relations “which increases the risk of unintended or accidental conflict. Human or technical mistakes and a variety of natural events can cause the failure or malfunction of technical systems and errors in decision making. The absence of contacts between the United States and Russian military and the failure to reach new agreements while existing agreements collapse worsens an already dangerous situation.”

Leonid Ryabikhin holds research positions in the Russian Diplomatic Academy and in the Institute of World Economy and International Relations. In 1989, he joined the Committee of Soviet Scientists for Peace Against Nuclear Threat and the Committee of Scientists for Global Security and Arms Control where he is Executive Secretary. He also served in the USSR  Air Force.

Acknowledgments: The workshop was funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.

This report is published simultaneously by Technology for Global Security and is published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License.

Read more: 

https://defconwarningsystem.com/2019/07/25/russias-nc3-and-early-warning-systems/

US Defense Budget: ¿Where goes the money endly go?

¿Where does the money of the US taxpayer really go?

Watching the scene from outside US, it results difficult to understand how some countries with much less defense budgets are achieving better results.

Let us think on Avangard Hypersonic Glide Vehicle made by Russia: As reported,  it has been launched from the Dombarovskiy missile base in the southern Ural Mountains, and successfully hit a practice target on the Kura shooting range on Kamchatka, 6000 kilometres (3700 miles) away, reaching speeds close to Mach 25, what means roughly 10 Km/s or 6 miles/s.

¿Truth or lie? If the above is truth, this would mean that no US anti-missile could knock it down. In another words: United States could lay fastly out of combat in case a military conflict against Russia.

So, again: ¿Where has the money of the US taxpayer really gone?

Sergei Ivanov, a former Russian defence minister, has said in televised comments that the Avangard constantly changes its course and altitude while it flies through the atmosphere, chaotically zigzagging on its path to its target, making it impossible to predict the weapon’s location.

¿Truth or lie? If truth, ¿United States has something similar? For the moment, it seems simply that the answer is "no".

So, again: ¿Where has the money of the US taxpayer really gone?

Ivanov has stated also that the Avangard Hypersonic Glide Vehicle has cost hundreds of times less than what the US has spent on its missile defence system.

¿Truth or lie? Well, bearing in mind the russian defence budget, it can not be a lie at all.

And now the the cherry on the cake: Ivanov has revealed that Russia began to develop the Avangard after 2002 when the US withdrew from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and began developing defences against ballistic missiles.

¿Truth or lie? Well, this is not the right question. The right question is -or should be- the following :  If a dwarfy budget as the russian defence budget has allowed Russia to get something like the Avangard in just 16 years, ¿Where has the money of the US taxpayer really gone during these 16 years?

US State Department Backs Patriot Missile Sale

On December 18, the U.S. State Department announced its proposal to Congress for a $3.5 billion Patriot system sale to Turkey.

The DSCA press release reports that Turkey plans to procure 80 Patriot MIM-104E GEM (Guidance Enhanced Missiles) and 60 PAC-3 MSE (Missile Segment Enhancement) missiles.

The package also includes four AN/MPQ-65 Radar Sets, as well as other launching stations and control systems. According to an unnamed State Department spokesperson, the sale will allow “the Turkish military to guard against hostile aggression and shield NATO allies.”

This announcement follows several years of increasing tensions between the United States and Turkey under President Tayyip Erdogan.

Lockheed secures $3.3b deal to deliver PAC-3 to Saudi Arabia

PAC-3 missiles are high-velocity interceptors against incoming threats, including tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and aircrafts.

Thirteen nations –Germany, Japan, Kuwait, Netherlands, Poland, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Sweden, Romania, Taiwan, UAE and United States– have chosen PAC-3 and PAC-3 MSE (Missile Segment Enhancement) to provide missile defense capabilities.

The upgraded PAC-3 MSE expands the lethal battlespace with a dual-pulse solid rocket motor, providing increased performance in altitude and range. PAC-3 MSE is a high-velocity interceptor against incoming threats, including tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and aircrafts.

The missile uses Hit-to-Kill technology, which engages threats through kinetic energy via body-to-body contact. In words of Jay Pitman, vice president of PAC-3 programs at Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control, "PAC-3 and PAC-3 MSE give our customers unmatched, combat-proven hit-to-kill technology to address growing and evolving threats. PAC-3 and PAC-3 MSE are proven, trusted and reliable interceptors that employ hit-to-kill accuracy, lethality and enhanced safety to address dangers around the world."

(Read more)

Turkey would not allow US to inspect Russian S-400

A senior Turkish official says Ankara would not provide the United States with the opportunity to study the advanced Russian-built S-400 air defense missile system, regardless of strong opposition from Washington and warnings that Turkey should not buy the anti-aircraft platform.

(Read more...)

Additive Manufacturing to modernize the US Military

“Innovation” and “force modernization” are the Pentagon buzzwords of the day: Strategies are being developed across the Department of Defense enterprise, with these concepts as the foundational pillars. But oddly enough considering the defense budget of the United States compared to the defense budget of Russia or China, for the first time in decades the United States military apparatus does not possess a clear advantage on the world stage.

¿Causes? The flattening of the technological landscape and emergence of strongly modernized adversaries like Russia and China. Both causes requires that the U.S. innovate to remain dominant not only in technological progress but also in the ability to field systems more rapidly than their peer adversaries.

¿Solutions? Of course, there are not magical solutions, but the undersecretary for research and engineering, Michael Griffin, and other DoD leaders, believe that, in many ways, the Additive Manufacturing could boost the solution. They emphasize this approach in the fiscal 2019 budget request: $90 billion in R&D with increases concentrated in rapid prototyping for testing activities.

For the Pentagon, the Additive Manufacturing can serve as a foundational tool to accelerate new weapons development and provide innovative solutions to win the wars of the XXI Century. Bearing this in mind, industry partners, military operators, and members of the science and technology communities should certainly take notice: DoD leaders are increasingly placing their bets on Additive Manufacturing and they are thinking on using it not only for rapid prototyping in the early stages of development, but also for manufacturing of end-use parts.

DEFCON 5

There are currently no imminent nuclear threats against the United States at this time, but let us go summarize the today-and-now status quo regarding the main actors on the main stages of a possible WW3

UNITED STATES vs RUSSIA

As the United States continues to consider withdrawing from the intermediate range nuclear weapon treaty, Russia has warned of an “efficient response” if the United States deploys intermediate-range missiles in Europe, implicity threatening any country that hosts U.S. nuclear weapons.

INDIA vs PAKISTAN and CHINA

• India’s first domestically built nuclear-powered submarine has completed its first patrol in a signal to both Pakistan and China and now says its nuclear triad is complete.
• China has begun construction on third aircraft carrier

IRAN

Iran has test-fired a medium range ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple warheads.

NORTH KOREA vs UNITED STATES and SOUTH KOREA

• North Korea has threatens to restart nuclear weapons programme if U.S. does not provide sanctions relief.
• It must be noted that North Korea has continued to expand operations at its main nuclear site and that South Korea spy agency have reported that North Korea is continuing to miniaturize nuclear warheads.
• United States say it may resume large-scale joint military exercises with South Korea if there continues to be no tangible progress on the denuclearization of North Korea.

RUSSIA vs UKRAINE

• Russia has attacked and captured Ukraine vessels in the Sea of Azov.
• While Ukraine makes noises of war, no other country seems to be moving in that direction.
• The United States has stated that the current crises is an European problem, indicating that the U.S. will not get involved.
• Additionally, Germany has refused a request to get involved.
• This does not mean that escalation is not possible.
• This is highly dependent on what Russia will do and how NATO will respond. 

DEFCON 4

For immediate updates, go to www.defconwarningsystem.com.

Breaking news and important information can be found on the DEFCON Warning System community forum and on the DEFCON Twitter feed DEFCONWSAlerts. 

You may also subscribe to the DEFCON Warning System mailing list. The next scheduled update is 2 P.M. Pacific Time, May 1, 2018. Additional updates will be made as the situation warrants, with more frequent updates at higher alert levels.

If this had been an actual attack, the DEFCON Warning System will give radiation readings for areas that are reported to it. Your readings will vary. Official news sources will have radiation readings for your area. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning.

At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack: There are various reports of military assets being moved into position, and both Russia and Syria believe that a strike by the United States is imminent. While we do not believe the situation in Syria will be anything more than it has been in the past, we feel that a raise in the alert level is a prudent precaution at this time.

www.defconwarningsystem.com

defcon@defconwarningsystem.com

Nukes for Nukes

Putin has warned America during a state of the nation address delivered on Thursday, saying he would render all anti-missile capabilities that the US currently has powerless with his new and advanced weapon systems.

“We are greatly concerned by some parts of the new nuclear posture, which reduces the benchmark for the use of nuclear weapons.Whatever soothing words one may try to use behind closed doors, we can read what was written. And it says that these weapons can be used in response to a conventional attack or even a cyber-threat,” he said.

“Our nuclear doctrine says Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons only in response to a nuclear attack or an attack with other weapons of mass destruction against her or her allies, or a conventional attack against us that threatens the very existence of the state.”

“It is my duty to state this: Any use of nuclear weapons against Russia or its allies, be it small-scale, medium-scale or any other scale, will be treated as a nuclear attack on our country. The response will be instant and with all the relevant consequences,”

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the United States is planning to deploy five cruisers and 30 destroyers near the Russian border. Should the US make the mistake of attacking Russia, however small the attack may be, Putin will launch nuclear weapons.

341st Missile Wing commander confirmed for promotion

Col. Ronald G. Allen Jr., began service as commander of the 341st Missile Wing at Malmstrom Air Force Base in April 2016.

He was among 1.317 eligible colonels for promotion to the rank of brigadier general and at the end of December the U.S. Senate confirmed him for promotion to brigadier general in the United States Air Force.

“It’s a great honor to serve with someone of Col. Allen’s caliber and character,” said Col. Peter Bonetti, 341st MW vice commander. “I’m grateful to see the Senate confirmation. It’s an acknowledgement that Col. Allen’s senior leadership is vital to the Air Force and the United States.”

The wing’s 4.000 personnel defend the United States with combat-ready Airmen and nuclear forces. They are responsible for base support, maintenance, security and operation of 150 Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles located throughout a 13.800 square-mile complex in central Montana.

Downing down NK missiles: The need of a new approach

Concerned that the missile defense system designed to protect American cities is insufficient by itself to deter a North Korean attack, the Trump administration is expanding its strategy to also try to stop Pyongyang’s missiles before they get far from Korean airspace.

Congressional documents are actually talking about “additional investments” in “boost-phase missile defense.” The goal is to hit long-range missiles at their point of greatest vulnerability: while their engines are firing and the vehicles are stressed to the breaking point, and before their warheads are deployed.

In interviews, defense officials, along with top scientists and senior members of Congress, describe the effort as a response to the unexpected progress that North Korea has made in developing ICBMs capable of delivering a nuclear bomb to the continental United States: “It is an all-out effort,” said Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, who returned from a lengthy visit to South Korea last month, convinced that the United States needed to do far more to counter North Korea. “There is a fast-emerging threat, a diminishing window, and a recognition that we can’t be reliant on one solution.”

One first approach is to have stealth fighters such as the F-22 or the F-35 scramble from nearby bases in South Korea and Japan at the first sign of North Korean launch preparations. The jets would carry conventional air-to-air missiles, which are 12 feet long, and fire them at the North Korean long-range missiles after they are launched. But they would have to fly relatively close to North Korea to do that, increasing the chances of being shot down.

A second approach -hinted at in an emergency request to Congress last week for $4 billion to deal with North Korea- envisions the stepped-up use of cyber weapons to interfere with the North’s control systems before missiles are launched. Using cyber weapons to disrupt launches is a radical innovation in missile defense in the past three decades, but in the case of North Korea it is also the most difficult: It requires getting into the missile manufacturing, launch control and guidance systems of a country that makes very limited use of the internet and has few connections to the outside world — most of them through China, and to a lesser degree Russia.

And a third approach is to develop a UAV that would fire potent laser beams at rising missiles. But recent plans would have it make its debut no sooner than 2025 — too late to play a role in the current crisis or the Trump presidency.

¿Has China really backed down over South Korea missile shield row?

Back in 2016 – after the United States and South Korea decided that US Forces Korea would deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defence shield system in South Korea – relations between Beijing and Seoul fell off a cliff.

China unofficially sanctioned South Korean firms, including Lotte, the conglomerate that would eventually cede land to the South Korean government in the country’s south to allow for a deployment of the missile system. For Beijing, the US deployment of THAAD was never about the missile interceptors: Rather, Beijing has long expressed open concern – even through its foreign minister – about the powerful X-band AN/TPY-2 radar that accompanies the THAAD system.

(Read more...)

India Is Developing Its Own Missile-Defense Shield

A decade later, New Delhi has finally begun setting up a two-layer ballistic missile defense shield that initially will protect New Delhi and Mumbai. The Prithvi Air Defense (PAD) system will provide long-range high-altitude ballistic missile interception during an incoming missile’s midcourse phase, while the Advanced Air Defense system offers short-range, low-altitude defense against missiles in the terminal phase of their trajectory. Reportedly the first batteries have begun installation in two villages in Rajasthan.

At first glance, the Prithvi Air Defense missile seems quite capable, with a range of 1,250 miles and a maximum altitude of 260,000 feet, making it an exospheric interceptor. The missile is programmed prior to launch by the BMD command center on an intercept trajectory, which it maintains using an inertial navigation system. It receives midcourse updates to its trajectory using data from the Swordfish radar, and then in the terminal approach phase switches to its own active radar seeker and destroys the target with a proximity-fused warhead.

For defense at low-altitudes, the solid-fuel Advanced Air Defense system, or Ashwar, uses an endospheric (within the Earth’s atmosphere) interceptor that knocks out ballistic missiles at a maximum altitude of 60,000 to 100,000 feet, and across a range between 90 and 125 miles for local defense. The AAD has performed successfully in most tests against targets at altitudes of 50,000 feet, though an improved model failed a test in April 2015 before succeeding in subsequent attempts. It is claimed the Mach 4.5 missile might also have application against cruise missiles and aircraft.

However, a major limitation of the PAD is that the second phase of the two-stage rocket uses liquid fuel. As liquid rocket fuel corrodes fuel tanks when stored for long, the PAD could not be on standby 24/7. Instead, it would need to be gassed up during a period of crisis in anticipation of trouble. This is less than ideal for a weapon intended to defend against an attack which might come at any moment.

MDA seeks laser-armed HALE UAV for counter-ICBM role

The United States is looking to field a laser-armed UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) to intercept ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) towards the middle of the next decade, the MDA (Missile Defense Agency) disclosed on 13 June.

(Read more)

Poland, Romania and Spain, targets of russian missiles

Poland, Romania and Spain have volunteered to take on elements of an American missile shield, despite Russia's firm opposition to US missile defense near its borders in Europe, and the constant warning of Russia regarding that states who decide to harbor elements of such defensive system will be target of the russian missiles.

The relationship between the United States and Russia are currently tense, especially in Europe, with the respective allies of countries that repeatedly meet pulling, buzzing and intercepting the other aircraft over the Baltic Sea in June. If that were not enough, it is rumored that US President Donald Trump would be considering to abandon the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty (INF).

The agreement restrains US and Russian missiles within ranges of 500 to 5.500 kilometers, but Republicans want to close the deal to develop new missiles, arguing that Russia would already done the same. Viktor Shamanov, head of the Defense Committee in the Russian lower house and leading military expert for the United Russia party, addressed the issue today: "We have to wait for a US decision, but I think withdrawing would be worse for everyone because This would provoke an arms race in which nobody will be winner ".

23th May: DEFCON 4

There are currently no imminent nuclear threats against the United States. However, there are events that are currently occurring that require closer monitoring. Let's see them below:

1) The United States and North Korea continue to face each other and the tension is increasing: On the part of the United States there are large numbers of men and material displaced towards the Korean peninsula.

On the part of North Korea that country continues advancing in its nuclear program.

2) The situation in the area is very volatile and tension can be aggravated at any time: the United States has deployed 100 F-16 fighter planes on South Korean soil with which it has been carrying out exercises in South Korean airspace on a regular basis during some time. Considering that such exercises often take place prior to an attack -as in the case of Operation Desert Storm- I can suppose a pre-emptive strike at any date against major strategic targets in North Korea, which could be carried out initially using F-35 and Tomahawk missiles. How would North Korea react? At best -that is, in the event that the US pre-emptive strike with the F-35s and Tomahawks knocks out North Korea's anti-aircraft defenses, the artillery pieces aimed at Korea South, and all its nuclear missile launchers- we could hope a quick and definitive solution to the South Korean problem. However, if the first attack does not achieve its objectives, South Korea's reaction may include attacks with weapons of mass destruction directed against any US allied territory that may be within its reach, especially South Korea and Japan. If it could also reach the bases of the United States in other areas of the Pacific and even attack the American continent, the situation would become unpredictable.

3) Another possibility that does not deserve to be dismissed in any way is that North Korea launches a first preventive attack against the United States, generating an electromagnetic pulse on its territory. That pulse would be generated by the detonation of a nuclear device housed in one or both of the two earth observation satellites KMS 3-2 and KMS-4 put into orbit by North Korea in April 2012 and February 2016 respectively. In that case, the negative consequences would be of all kinds: massive blackouts, total communications outages, destruction of electronic systems for airplanes, automobiles, trucks and trains, and all the ensuing chaos: Crashed planes, collapsed roads , Emergency services inoperative, etc.