The countries of the South China Sea area prepare for a Naval War

Escalating tensions in the South China Sea has resulted in several countries in that region to strengthen their naval capabilities, as demonstrated by some facts:

In May 2019, Philippine Navy announced its plans to buy 25-30 warships including destroyers to modernize and increase its existing fleet by 2030.

In December 2019, China announced its plans to build two guided-missile Type 055 and Type 052D destroyers that will be ready for battle service by 2021.

In January 2020, China presented its first fourth-generation guided-missile destroyer "Nanchang" intended be used as aircraft carrier escort.

In March 2020, Japan announced its plans to build its second Maya class destroyer that will be equipped with the Aegis defense system and will exhibit ballistic missile defense capability. The first Maya class destroyer was launched in 2019 and it is expected to be commissioned in a few months.

In May 2020, Australia also concluded its Air Warfare Destroyer program by commissioning the Hobart Class guided missile Aegis capable HMAS Sydney V destroyer. Australia is expected to purchase defense systems and other technological support worth billions to support the upgradation of the latest fleet.

Indian Navy has under construction four 7300 tons destroyers at Mazagon Docks in Mumbai, and the Indian government has signed a deal to acquire advanced sensor and weapon systems package for nearly USD 800 million to arm these under-construction warships.

Some other small nations with limited capabilities in shipbuilding are purchasing destroyers from other markets such as China, Europe, Japan, South Korea or United States.

¿What if all the wolves decide to attack now?

With a forced aircraft carrier in port and nuclear missile crews hit by Covid-19, the United States are now facing the possibility of a large-scale opportunistic attack, taking advantage of the drop in defenses on all fronts: According to Hans Kristensen, a nuclear weapons expert at the Federation of American Scientists, all US nuclear facilities except one have been affected by the virus.

Fortunately, the Pentagon has been completely proactive in establishing a "bubble" system in early March, creating two separate operational teams for submarines and nuclear missile silos. However, it is worth considering to what extent these measures should have been adopted previously, considering that on Thursday 9 the Newsweek magazine published a map showing that cases of coronavirus had appeared in 150 military bases.

In addition to what was reported by Newsweek, it is known that four aircraft carriers have also been reached, among which the aircraft carrier USS Roosevelt stands out, forced to dock in Guam for a long period due to an outbreak that has affected 416 of the 4.800 on board . The other three aircraft carriers affected have been USS Reagan, docked in Japan, and USSs Vinson and Nimitz, both under maintenance in Washington state.

Perhaps the United States have done the big mistake in being so transparent, because nature shows us time after time that wolves get emboldened as more weakness they perceive in their prey. ¿Will China take advantage to expand its military presence further into the Pacific? ¿Will Russia fail to take advantage of this golden opportunity to strengthen its military presence in the Arctic? Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, North Korea... ¿Will all of them fail to seize this opportunity to deliver the great blow to their eternal and hated enemies? ¿Or perhaps are all of them just waiting for the best moment to deliver the great blow, when the United States will show its maximum level of weakness? I prefer not imagine it. In that case, May God mercy all of us. Good afternoon, and good luck.

Lockheed secures $3.3b deal to deliver PAC-3 to Saudi Arabia

PAC-3 missiles are high-velocity interceptors against incoming threats, including tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and aircrafts.

Thirteen nations –Germany, Japan, Kuwait, Netherlands, Poland, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Sweden, Romania, Taiwan, UAE and United States– have chosen PAC-3 and PAC-3 MSE (Missile Segment Enhancement) to provide missile defense capabilities.

The upgraded PAC-3 MSE expands the lethal battlespace with a dual-pulse solid rocket motor, providing increased performance in altitude and range. PAC-3 MSE is a high-velocity interceptor against incoming threats, including tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and aircrafts.

The missile uses Hit-to-Kill technology, which engages threats through kinetic energy via body-to-body contact. In words of Jay Pitman, vice president of PAC-3 programs at Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control, "PAC-3 and PAC-3 MSE give our customers unmatched, combat-proven hit-to-kill technology to address growing and evolving threats. PAC-3 and PAC-3 MSE are proven, trusted and reliable interceptors that employ hit-to-kill accuracy, lethality and enhanced safety to address dangers around the world."

(Read more)

Aegis Ashore deployment in Japan will affect ties of Moscow and Tokyo

The deployment of U.S.-made Aegis Ashore land-based missile defense systems in Japan will affect ties of Moscow and Tokyo, including the dialogue on a peace treaty, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Thursday 28.

She mentioned that the systems are equipped with universal launchers that are also capable of using attack weapons. "In practice, this will mean a new violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty by the U.S. with practical assistance from Japan," Zakharova stressed.

On December 19, the Japanese government made the decision to deploy two Aegis Ashore missile defense systems in the north and southwest of the country’s main island of Honshu, tentatively in 2023. Japan maintains that they are aimed at securing the country against ballistic and maybe cruise missiles. These systems will be bought from the U.S. and will cost Japan an equivalent of about $889 million each.

"Once again we are calling on the Japanese counterparts to consider whether it is in their interests to become involved in violating the INF Treaty. The U.S. has been deploying them at the military bases in Romania and Poland, which is next to our western border, thus violating the INF Treaty of 1987, which outlaws use of such systems ashore." Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov also stressed.

Downing down NK missiles: The need of a new approach

Concerned that the missile defense system designed to protect American cities is insufficient by itself to deter a North Korean attack, the Trump administration is expanding its strategy to also try to stop Pyongyang’s missiles before they get far from Korean airspace.

Congressional documents are actually talking about “additional investments” in “boost-phase missile defense.” The goal is to hit long-range missiles at their point of greatest vulnerability: while their engines are firing and the vehicles are stressed to the breaking point, and before their warheads are deployed.

In interviews, defense officials, along with top scientists and senior members of Congress, describe the effort as a response to the unexpected progress that North Korea has made in developing ICBMs capable of delivering a nuclear bomb to the continental United States: “It is an all-out effort,” said Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, who returned from a lengthy visit to South Korea last month, convinced that the United States needed to do far more to counter North Korea. “There is a fast-emerging threat, a diminishing window, and a recognition that we can’t be reliant on one solution.”

One first approach is to have stealth fighters such as the F-22 or the F-35 scramble from nearby bases in South Korea and Japan at the first sign of North Korean launch preparations. The jets would carry conventional air-to-air missiles, which are 12 feet long, and fire them at the North Korean long-range missiles after they are launched. But they would have to fly relatively close to North Korea to do that, increasing the chances of being shot down.

A second approach -hinted at in an emergency request to Congress last week for $4 billion to deal with North Korea- envisions the stepped-up use of cyber weapons to interfere with the North’s control systems before missiles are launched. Using cyber weapons to disrupt launches is a radical innovation in missile defense in the past three decades, but in the case of North Korea it is also the most difficult: It requires getting into the missile manufacturing, launch control and guidance systems of a country that makes very limited use of the internet and has few connections to the outside world — most of them through China, and to a lesser degree Russia.

And a third approach is to develop a UAV that would fire potent laser beams at rising missiles. But recent plans would have it make its debut no sooner than 2025 — too late to play a role in the current crisis or the Trump presidency.

India Is Developing Its Own Missile-Defense Shield

A decade later, New Delhi has finally begun setting up a two-layer ballistic missile defense shield that initially will protect New Delhi and Mumbai. The Prithvi Air Defense (PAD) system will provide long-range high-altitude ballistic missile interception during an incoming missile’s midcourse phase, while the Advanced Air Defense system offers short-range, low-altitude defense against missiles in the terminal phase of their trajectory. Reportedly the first batteries have begun installation in two villages in Rajasthan.

At first glance, the Prithvi Air Defense missile seems quite capable, with a range of 1,250 miles and a maximum altitude of 260,000 feet, making it an exospheric interceptor. The missile is programmed prior to launch by the BMD command center on an intercept trajectory, which it maintains using an inertial navigation system. It receives midcourse updates to its trajectory using data from the Swordfish radar, and then in the terminal approach phase switches to its own active radar seeker and destroys the target with a proximity-fused warhead.

For defense at low-altitudes, the solid-fuel Advanced Air Defense system, or Ashwar, uses an endospheric (within the Earth’s atmosphere) interceptor that knocks out ballistic missiles at a maximum altitude of 60,000 to 100,000 feet, and across a range between 90 and 125 miles for local defense. The AAD has performed successfully in most tests against targets at altitudes of 50,000 feet, though an improved model failed a test in April 2015 before succeeding in subsequent attempts. It is claimed the Mach 4.5 missile might also have application against cruise missiles and aircraft.

However, a major limitation of the PAD is that the second phase of the two-stage rocket uses liquid fuel. As liquid rocket fuel corrodes fuel tanks when stored for long, the PAD could not be on standby 24/7. Instead, it would need to be gassed up during a period of crisis in anticipation of trouble. This is less than ideal for a weapon intended to defend against an attack which might come at any moment.

Japan: Nuke alert

A new television broadcast has informed Japanese residents what they should do in the event of a missile attack, and between now and July, 43 television stations across Japan will broadcast the announcement while 70 Japanese newspapers will publish written instructions.

In the event of a missile attack, the Japanese Government will inform members of the public though speakers across the country. Residents must seek shelter or lie on ground. If they are inside a building, they must stay away from windows and protect their heads.

23th May: DEFCON 4

There are currently no imminent nuclear threats against the United States. However, there are events that are currently occurring that require closer monitoring. Let's see them below:

1) The United States and North Korea continue to face each other and the tension is increasing: On the part of the United States there are large numbers of men and material displaced towards the Korean peninsula.

On the part of North Korea that country continues advancing in its nuclear program.

2) The situation in the area is very volatile and tension can be aggravated at any time: the United States has deployed 100 F-16 fighter planes on South Korean soil with which it has been carrying out exercises in South Korean airspace on a regular basis during some time. Considering that such exercises often take place prior to an attack -as in the case of Operation Desert Storm- I can suppose a pre-emptive strike at any date against major strategic targets in North Korea, which could be carried out initially using F-35 and Tomahawk missiles. How would North Korea react? At best -that is, in the event that the US pre-emptive strike with the F-35s and Tomahawks knocks out North Korea's anti-aircraft defenses, the artillery pieces aimed at Korea South, and all its nuclear missile launchers- we could hope a quick and definitive solution to the South Korean problem. However, if the first attack does not achieve its objectives, South Korea's reaction may include attacks with weapons of mass destruction directed against any US allied territory that may be within its reach, especially South Korea and Japan. If it could also reach the bases of the United States in other areas of the Pacific and even attack the American continent, the situation would become unpredictable.

3) Another possibility that does not deserve to be dismissed in any way is that North Korea launches a first preventive attack against the United States, generating an electromagnetic pulse on its territory. That pulse would be generated by the detonation of a nuclear device housed in one or both of the two earth observation satellites KMS 3-2 and KMS-4 put into orbit by North Korea in April 2012 and February 2016 respectively. In that case, the negative consequences would be of all kinds: massive blackouts, total communications outages, destruction of electronic systems for airplanes, automobiles, trucks and trains, and all the ensuing chaos: Crashed planes, collapsed roads , Emergency services inoperative, etc.

North Korea singles out Darwin

Australia’s Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne has laughed off North Korea’s latest claims against them, telling the US deployment in Darwin, the sixth and most complex US marine air-ground task force to be deployed to the territory, is not in any way a preparation for a conflagration on the Korean Peninsula: “Obviously, we want to avoid any such military action and we want the North Koreans to behave as well as they can, like reasonable, international citizens. That means ending their missile testing and not preparing for a nuclear war with either the United States, Japan, South Korea or anyone else for that matter."

Mr. Pyne added North Korea does not yet have the capability to put a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile that would reach Australia, “And one of the reasons why the Trump administration is strengthening its attitude in North Korea is to avoid North Korea ever having that capability. For that reason, Australia supports the United States’ actions very strongly and we call on China to take the lead role as the nation with the most influence over North Korea in bringing that about.”

(Read more)

THAAD seen as capable of intercepting N.K. mid-range missile

The advanced U.S. missile defense system THAAD is believed to be capable of intercepting North Korea's intermediate-range ballistic missiles if it is deployed in South Korea, Seoul's defense chief said Friday.

North Korea claimed Thursday that it has succeeded in test-firing its mid-range missile, boasting of its capacity to hit U.S. forces in the Pacific region. "The deployment of THAAD will help South Korea's move to counter the North's missile threats," Defense Minister Han Min-koo told reporters.

The minister said that more information is needed to check THAAD's capability to intercept the North's mid-range missiles, but generally, the system is believed to be up to the task. Seoul and Washington have been discussing the potential deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery in South Korea, where about 28,500 American troops are stationed.

The allies' move is aimed at countering the North's evolving missile threats amid concerns about the technical progress of North Korea's nuclear and missile programs. On Wednesday, the North fired off what is believed to be two Musudan mid-range missiles, marking its fifth and sixth launches since April. The Musudan missile, with an estimated range of some 3,000 to 4,000 kilometers, could theoretically reach any target in Japan and fly as far as the U.S. territory of Guam.

The North's first five attempts to test-fire the missile failed, but the sixth one flew about 400 kilometers after being launched at a higher angle Wednesday. The North's latest move raises concerns about advances made in the country's nuclear and missile capabilities. Pyongyang is seeking to develop a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting targets on the U.S. mainland. South Korea's military said that it is too early to conclude the North's test was a total success, but experts said that if the North did not launch the missile at a higher angle, it could have traversed on a normal trajectory.

Han said that North Korea could test-fire an ICBM or a submarine-launched missile in a bid to show off its military prowess. "We do not rule out the possibility of an additional nuclear test by North Korea," he said. South Korea is speeding up the development of the indigenous Korea Air and Missile Defense system. A pre-emptive missile destruction system, the so-called Kill Chain, is also under development to detect and strike North Korea's missile and nuclear facilities. The North conducted its fourth nuke test in January and launched a long-range rocket in the following month, drawing international condemnation. The country is banned from using ballistic missile technology under relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions.

¿Why Japan is wary of North Korea's Musudan missiles?

North Korea has recently claimed a series of breakthroughs in its push to build a long-range nuclear missile that can strike the American mainland. If the North's claims about the sixth Musudan launch are true, it would pose a threat to the USA military base in Guam, where troops that would be sent to the Korean Peninsula if conflict broke out are based, and also possibly a nuclear threat. It explains in part North Korea's tenacious testing of the Musudan missile. (Read more)

Corea del Norte: El vecino gamberro

Un lector nos ha planteado la siguiente pregunta:

"Si Corea del Norte decide atacar con misiles balísticos a Corea del Sur, Japón o incluso atacar las bases norteamericanas en el Pacífico, ¿Hay alguna manera de neutralizar los misiles antes de que alcancen su objetivo?"

Y esto es lo que hemos respondido:

Si Corea del Norte decide atacar a sus vecinos lanzando misiles balísticos, existen suficientes medios de interceptar y destruir esos misiles antes de que alcancen sus objetivos. Tanto Corea del Sur como Estados Unidos y Japón cuentan con esos medios y están preparados para utilizarlos llegado el caso, pues ninguna posibilidad puede ser descartada. Naturalmente Corea del Norte lo sabe, y cabe suponer que se lo piense dos veces antes de lanzar un ataque. Sabe igualmente que no puede hacer nada para contrarrestar esos medios defensivos. Más aún, sabe que tal ataque sería considerado como una declaración de guerra y traería funestas consecuencias para Corea del Norte. Por tanto, hoy y ahora cabe descartar que se produzca un ataque por más amenazas que profieran y más movimientos de misiles que efectúen: Perro ladrador, poco mordedor. En cualquier caso, vamos a exponer brevemente qué medios existen para repeler ese tipo de ataques:

Durante la fase de ascenso: el cohete y su ojiva están acoplados y viajan en dirección al espacio. Esta fase tiene lugar dentro de la atmósfera terrestre y es cuando más fácil resulta la interceptación del misil, mediante el simple uso de misiles aire-aire. Ahora bien, esta fase tendría lugar dentro del espacio aereo de Corea del Norte, por lo que existirían pocas posibilidades de alcanzarlo con un misil aire-aire. Existe la posibilidad de interceptarlo con un laser desde un avión, pero igualmente existirían pocas probabilidades de contrarrestar la distancia. Habría que utilizar un Interceptor de Energía Cinética, preferiblemente un PAC-3.

Durante la fase intermedia: la ojiva se ha separado del cohete y se encuentran ambos elementos fuera de la atmósfera. Si se trata de un misil de alcance medio, puede perfectamente ser neutralizado con un SM-3 lanzado desde un buque enlazado al sistema AEGIS. Pero si se trata de un misil de largo alcance, la altura a la que vuelan fuera de la atmósfera es mayor y habría que utilizar interceptores de mayor alcance, lanzados desde tierra (Sistema GMD). Tanto Estados Unidos como Corea del Sur y Japón cuentan con buques enlazados al sistema AEGIS y dotados de suficientes misiles SM-3, por lo que un ataque de Corea del Norte estaría abocado a fracasar. Y en el caso de que utilizasen misiles de largo alcance, Estados Unidos cuenta con suficientes interceptores para neutralizar la amenaza. 

Durante la fase terminal: tenemos una ojiva que viaja dentro de la atmósfera hacia su objetivo. Es durante esta fase cuando mas dificultad existe para neutralizar la amenaza, y para ello se ha creado el sistema denominado Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), que cuenta con misiles capaces de impactar y destruir la ojiva durante su descenso.

Si al final no consiguiese neutralizarse la amenaza: Detonar una ojiva nuclear no es tarea fácil, pues requiere contar con sistemas muy complejos y precisos que deben funcionar perfectamente. Y a día de hoy, no existe certeza de que los norcoreanos hayan resuelto esa dificultad. 

David del Fresno

 

Orientación y Asesoría en Manufactura Aditiva

http://daviddft.wix.com/david-del-fresno

Japan, South Korea and Australia urge US to boost BMD

Alarmed by the potential danger from an unpredictable Kim Jong-un, South Korea and Japan are upgrading their cooperation with the United States to counter ballistic missile threats.

In addition, “Australia has signed on to cooperate with American ballistic missile defense systems in north Asia, and has welcomed both the larger U.S. Marine presence in Darwin and the prospect of more joint naval cooperation in the region,” Britain’s Guardian newspaper reported.

Growing US-Japan military ties

According to reports, Japan and the United States are revising their mutual defence guidelines to pursue a wider partnership. The US, in an interim report released on Wednesday, said that the new guidelines "are in response to new threats extant in the world and to a new willingness of Japan to embrace a greater role in the world".

Russia Fires Nuclear Missile

Russia successfully tested its latest Bulava intercontinental nuclear missile Wednesday amid rising tensions with NATO over the conflict in Ukraine.

The nearly 37-ton missile was launched from Russia’s new submarine, the Vladimir Monomakh, as part of its sea trials. Deputy Defense Minister Yuriy Borisov said a total of five test launches are planned.

The Borei-class Vladimir Monomakh can carry up to 16 Bulava missiles, which can each carry up to 10 nuclear warheads. The Bulava missiles have a range of 5,000 miles and can reportedly cause a blast 100 times larger than the atomic bombs the U.S. dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

South Korea: China pissed due to the US antimissile plans

Beijing has voiced its concerns over THAAD plans, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang saying last month that “deploying missile defense on the Korean peninsula would not be in the interest of regional stability or strategic balance.”

The plans are justified by a growing missile threat from North Korea against America’s allies South Korea, Japan and military bases. The US military plans to deploy its Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense in South Korea and, according to some media reports, is pressuring Seoul to do so instead of developing a national missile defense system.

"There was consideration being taken in order to consider THAAD being deployed here in Korea. It is a US initiative, and in fact, I recommended it as the commander," General Curtis Scaparrotti, the commander of United States Forces Korea (USFK), said last month addressing a forum hosted by the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, in Seoul. Washington is looking for a region-wide, operational anti-missile defense system, with military experts believing that it would be actually aimed against China’s increasing military presence.

Washington so far has not officially proposed Seoul host its anti-missile system, with the plan being currently internally debated, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin said. While previously South Korean officials maintained that they want to provide protection from possible missile attacks domestically, on Wednesday South Korean acting Defense Minister Kim said he would not object to Korea hosting the American system, as long as Seoul does not pay for it. 

Mitsubishi gets greenlight

The Japanese government on Thursday gave the green light to export a Japanese-made missile component to the United States, marking the first such decision since the country eased restrictions on arms exports this April, local media reported.

Japan's National Security Council (NSC), a body set up under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to speed up decision-making on defense and diplomacy, also decided the same day to conduct joint research with Britain on air-to-air missiles, said Japan's Kyodo News Agency. Thursday's approval will allow Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. to export a high-performance sensor to a U.S. defense company, which will use it in the Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) missile defense system to be exported to Qatar.

The sensor is a key component of an infrared device at the tip of the missile that identifies and tracks targets, the Nikkei business daily reported in an earlier report. Regarding the joint missile research with Britain, Japan eyes an agreement on the occasion of a "two-plus-two" meeting of their respective foreign and defense ministers that may be held in Britain as early as September. The missile in question is the Meteor air-to-air missile currently under development between Britain and several European countries, including France and Germany. It could be loaded on F- 35 stealth fighter jets that Japan's Self-Defense Forces are planning to introduce, said Kyodo News.

Guam Could Get a Missile Shield

Guam's strategic location just 1,500 miles South of Japan's shores make the tiny island a very valuable piece of real estate for the US military and a very enticing target for Pyongyang's missile program. (Read more)

Japan to Build More Aegis Destroyers

The Defense Ministry plans to order two more Aegis destroyers capable of intercepting ballistic missiles in view of the continuing nuclear and missile threats from North Korea.

The ministry will soon start negotiations with the Finance Ministry on the plan to bring the number of Aegis destroyers operated by the Maritime Self-Defense Force to eight. Four of the MSDF’s six Aegis destroyers are currently equipped with the missile defense system that can shoot down ballistic missiles in space.

At least two are needed to cover the entire Japanese archipelago with the ballistic missile defense system, though more provide better protection. To deal with a long-range ballistic missile threat from North Korea last December, the MSDF deployed two Aegis destroyers in the East China Sea and one in the Sea of Japan. In the spring, two were deployed in the Sea of Japan to brace for the launch of North Korea’s Musudan medium-range missiles as the other two were undergoing maintenance. As the threat continued, some critics pointed out the inadequacy of the missile defense structure.

U.S. to place Tippy-Two in Japan

Hoping to fill gaps in defenses against a possible North Korean missile attack, the United States has revealed plans to field a second missile-defense radar in Japan. The Raytheon-built radar AN-TPY-2, also known as “Tippy-Two,” will search for and track incoming missiles and can be integrated with land- and sea-based interceptor missile systems. "What we found after introduction of the first radar in Shariki is that coverage was extensive but imperfect," a U.S. official told reporters. The second radar “will provide additional coverage for the U.S. homeland as well as additional coverage against North Korean ballistic missile threats for the Japanese."