¿What if all the wolves decide to attack now?

With a forced aircraft carrier in port and nuclear missile crews hit by Covid-19, the United States are now facing the possibility of a large-scale opportunistic attack, taking advantage of the drop in defenses on all fronts: According to Hans Kristensen, a nuclear weapons expert at the Federation of American Scientists, all US nuclear facilities except one have been affected by the virus.

Fortunately, the Pentagon has been completely proactive in establishing a "bubble" system in early March, creating two separate operational teams for submarines and nuclear missile silos. However, it is worth considering to what extent these measures should have been adopted previously, considering that on Thursday 9 the Newsweek magazine published a map showing that cases of coronavirus had appeared in 150 military bases.

In addition to what was reported by Newsweek, it is known that four aircraft carriers have also been reached, among which the aircraft carrier USS Roosevelt stands out, forced to dock in Guam for a long period due to an outbreak that has affected 416 of the 4.800 on board . The other three aircraft carriers affected have been USS Reagan, docked in Japan, and USSs Vinson and Nimitz, both under maintenance in Washington state.

Perhaps the United States have done the big mistake in being so transparent, because nature shows us time after time that wolves get emboldened as more weakness they perceive in their prey. ¿Will China take advantage to expand its military presence further into the Pacific? ¿Will Russia fail to take advantage of this golden opportunity to strengthen its military presence in the Arctic? Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, North Korea... ¿Will all of them fail to seize this opportunity to deliver the great blow to their eternal and hated enemies? ¿Or perhaps are all of them just waiting for the best moment to deliver the great blow, when the United States will show its maximum level of weakness? I prefer not imagine it. In that case, May God mercy all of us. Good afternoon, and good luck.

Report warns MANPADS may be loose in Syria

The Syrian government’s shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles and launchers could imperil civil aviation if they fall into the hands of terror groups, according to an independent report examining the global proliferation of portable missiles.

Citing video and photo evidence from opposition forces, media and official accounts, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) study says some portable launchers and missiles have been seized by opposition forces during battles with Syrian troops, while others have been smuggled in to rebel fighters from neighboring countries.

The 88-page report warns about man-portable air-defense systems, also known as MANPADS, in the arsenal of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government. U.S. officials have estimated the Syrian government has as many as 20,000 MANPADS, compact missile launchers with the range and explosive power to attack low-flying planes and helicopters. Syria’s anti-aircraft missile inventory is comparable in size to that amassed by Libyan forces before the 2011 ouster of Moammar Gadhafi.

The FAS study cites the widespread looting of anti-aircraft weapons that occurred after Gadhafi’s fall and the mass ransacking of Iraqi weapons depots after the U.S. invasion in 2003 as evidence that Syria’s missiles are equally vulnerable. Portable anti-aircraft missiles have most often been used by non-government forces in conflict zones such as Iraq, where U.S. aircraft were targeted and sometimes struck by militants. Civilian passenger flights have never been threatened by shoulder-fired missiles in the U.S., but there have been nearly a dozen lethal strikes over the past decade in Asia and Africa.

The FAS report said the terrorist group al-Shabab in Somalia used an SA-18 missile to shoot down a Belarusian cargo aircraft departing from Mogadishu in 2007. Many of the portable launchers displayed by Syrian rebel groups on the Internet appear to be decades-old models such as Russian-made SA-7s — similar to ones found in Libya after Gadhafi’s ouster. Unlike Libya, Syria’s military has a larger supply of newer and longer-range models supplied from Russia, and as a result, Syrian rebels also appear to have seized some new-model Russian missile launchers.

NK's new developments on ICBMs: A brief look

North Korea is developing road-mobile ballistic missiles capable of reaching Guam, the Aleutian Islands and potentially Hawaii, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency's director said, citing the agency's growing concern at a recent Senate Appropriations Committee's Defense Subcommittee hearing.

Road-mobile ballistic missiles are on top of North Korea's ongoing attempts to further develop its long-range ballistic missile system Taepodong-2, according to the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. Though still in development, the Taepodong-2's range could also include Guam, according to the Federation of American Scientists.

North Korea's ballistic missile threat "continues to grow as our potential adversaries are acquiring a greater number of ballistic missiles, increasing their range and making them more complex, survivable, reliable, and accurate," stated Vice Admiral J.D. Syring's July 17 testimony before the Senate subcommittee.

"The missile defense mission is becoming more challenging as potential adversaries incorporate ballistic missile defense countermeasures," Syring stated.

Missile test impact

Syring told the Senate committee of the agency's plan this year to demonstrate the ability of an integrated ballistic missile defense system to defeat two near-simultaneous ballistic missile threats.

More missile test flights scheduled for next year will include two launches of Minuteman III test flights from Vanderberg Air Force Base in California. Guam, Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia are invited to read a supplemental environmental assessment of next year's tests, in part because during the tests, missile components "will impact within the Exclusive Economic Zones of Guam, the Republic of Palau, and the Federated States of Micronesia," a July 29 Air Force announcement states.

Missile Defense

The Missile Defense Agency director told the Senate subcommittee of plans to beef up the country's comprehensive U.S. missile defense system amid U.S. lawmakers' calls for the military to run on a tight budget. "We will also deliver more interceptors for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense ... and Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense ... as we look for ways to make them more operationally effective and cost-effective," Syring testified.

About this matter, let us remember that After North Korea made specific mention of Guam when it issued threats to launch missile attacks in April and May, the Defense Department responded by sending a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, which includes truck-mounted interceptors, to Guam. The THAAD interceptors are capable of shooting down a ballistic missile both inside and just outside the atmosphere, reducing the risk of fallout from an enemy's weapons of mass destruction.

The THAAD missile defense system has had a 100-percent success rate -- intercepting 10 out of 10 tests since the program began in 2006, a Missile Defense Agency test report released earlier this month states.

Congressional report

A June 24 Congressional Research Service report on Ballistic Missile Defense in the Asia-Pacific Region mentions that, in response to North Korea's threatening actions and statements in early 2013, the Pentagon decided to deploy a THAAD system to Guam two years ahead of schedule.

"Pyongyang has declared its intent to develop a nuclear-armed ICBM, but North Korea's longer range missiles capable of reaching Guam, Alaska, or the continental United States appear unreliable and in some cases are untested," the report states.

The congressional report does raise concern of the longer term implications if North Korea's missile tests continue. A 2013 Defense Department report on military and security developments involving North Korea assesses that Pyongyang will move closer to its goal of a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile capability if it continues to test missiles and to devote scarce resources to nuclear programs, the congressional report states.