Estados Unidos en el Pacífico: ¿Sin rumbo?

Según lo declarado en fechas recientes por el general Joel Vowell, comandante del ejército de Estados Unidos en Japón, el ejército de Estados Unidos estaría virtualmente ya fuera de combate en el Pacífico occidental, pues no cuenta con suficientes capacidades para defender sus bases en la zona. En palabras del general Vowell, "I don’t think we have enough right now."

¿Qué está pasando? Pues está pasando lo que tenía que pasar: que por un lado están desfasados en el desarrollo de misiles hipersónicos, y que por otro lado el enemigo en esa zona se ha convertido ya en un dragón de tres cabezas: China, Rusia y Corea del Norte.

China y Rusia van ya por delante de Estados Unidos en misiles hipersónicos, y Corea del Norte podría pronto contar con ese tipo de misiles. Por si esto no bastase, China y Rusia cuentan cada uno con armamento suficiente para destruir todos los buques norteamericanos en el Pacífico, así como avanzados sistemas antiaéreos capaces de poner en jaque a los aviones de la USAF.

¿Qué está haciendo Estados Unidos para tratar de contrarrestar esta amenaza? Poco o nada: que sepamos, está probando en Guam el Iron Dome israelí para tratar de que sirva como un complemento a los Patriot, pero no parece nada claro que pueda hacer mucho más.

Esperemos que no haya un enfrentamiento en esa zona. Por el bien de Estados Unidos, y por el bien del mundo: Las guerras se sabe como empiezan, pero no cómo acaban.

China's devious move under cover of virus

A Vietnamese fishing boat has been rammed and sunk. Military aircraft have landed at its artificial-island fortresses. And large-scale naval exercises has let everyone know China's navy is still pushing the boundaries, hard.

As outbreaks debilitate the US Navy, there are fears China may be using the coronavirus pandemic as cover for asserting control over the South China Sea, as China's People's Liberation Army knows this presents an opportunity: "The outbreak of COVID-19 has significantly lowered the US Navy's warship deployment capability in the Asia-Pacific region," an article on its official website declares.

Meanwhile, the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier strike group has retreated from the contested waterway in an unscheduled return to Guam - with hundreds of cases of COVID-19 on board. That has international affairs analysts worried that even a short-term withdrawal of US and international from the East and South China Seas could give Beijing the opportunity it has been waiting for: "I think China is exploiting the US Navy's coronavirus challenges to improve its position in the South China Sea by giving the appearance it can and will operate there at will while the US is hamstrung," former Pacific Command Joint Intelligence Centre director Carl Schuster told CNN.

(Read more...)

¿What if all the wolves decide to attack now?

With a forced aircraft carrier in port and nuclear missile crews hit by Covid-19, the United States are now facing the possibility of a large-scale opportunistic attack, taking advantage of the drop in defenses on all fronts: According to Hans Kristensen, a nuclear weapons expert at the Federation of American Scientists, all US nuclear facilities except one have been affected by the virus.

Fortunately, the Pentagon has been completely proactive in establishing a "bubble" system in early March, creating two separate operational teams for submarines and nuclear missile silos. However, it is worth considering to what extent these measures should have been adopted previously, considering that on Thursday 9 the Newsweek magazine published a map showing that cases of coronavirus had appeared in 150 military bases.

In addition to what was reported by Newsweek, it is known that four aircraft carriers have also been reached, among which the aircraft carrier USS Roosevelt stands out, forced to dock in Guam for a long period due to an outbreak that has affected 416 of the 4.800 on board . The other three aircraft carriers affected have been USS Reagan, docked in Japan, and USSs Vinson and Nimitz, both under maintenance in Washington state.

Perhaps the United States have done the big mistake in being so transparent, because nature shows us time after time that wolves get emboldened as more weakness they perceive in their prey. ¿Will China take advantage to expand its military presence further into the Pacific? ¿Will Russia fail to take advantage of this golden opportunity to strengthen its military presence in the Arctic? Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, North Korea... ¿Will all of them fail to seize this opportunity to deliver the great blow to their eternal and hated enemies? ¿Or perhaps are all of them just waiting for the best moment to deliver the great blow, when the United States will show its maximum level of weakness? I prefer not imagine it. In that case, May God mercy all of us. Good afternoon, and good luck.

Veinte mil millones de dólares para contrarrestar a China en el Pacífico

El almirante jefe del comando Indo-Pacífico, Philip Davidson, pretende gastar veinte mil millones de dólares en un ambicioso proyecto concebido para dispersar más tropas y armamento avanzado en todo el Pacífico, desplegar sistemas de defensa antimisiles y crear una red de campos de entrenamiento conjuntos que se extiendan desde California hasta Japón.

La propuesta pretende que la región del Pacífico sea la prioridad número uno del Pentágono, de acuerdo con la Estrategia de Defensa Nacional, que se enfoca a impedir a toda costa la supremacía militar china. Esto es algo que según Davidson se está olvidando a la hora de asignar fondos, ya que la cantidad solicitada constituye tan sólo un 80 por ciento de lo que Washington lleva gastado en la EDI (European Defense Initiative) durante el último lustro.

El proyecto divide el esfuerzo en cinco segmentos, cuyas inversiones conjuntas  equivaldrían a 1.600 millones de dólares en el presupuesto fiscal 2021, y 18.400 millones entre 2022 y 2026. La partida más importante asciende a 5.200 millones para inversiones en sistemas de defensa antimisiles. En definitiva, la idea de Philip Davidson es enviar a China un mensaje muy claro, y es que abandone toda ilusión de contrarrestar la supremacía militar norteamericana en la región del Pacífico.

No obstante y a pesar de todos estos esfuerzos, la situación podría complicarse en esa zona a corto plazo ya que los dos portaaviones asignados están actualmente "fuera de combate": El USS Reagan está siendo reparado en Japón, y el USS Roosevelt permanece en cuarentena detenido en Guam por un serio brote de COVID-19 entre su tripulación. ¿Cómo aprovechará China esta situación? El tiempo lo dirá. Son momentos inciertos, y cualquier error de cálculo podría desembocar en una espiral de violencia incontrolable.

Seguimos en DEFCON 4

Según lo publicado por la organización privada de inteligencia DEFCON Warning System, aunque actualmente no existen amenazas nucleares inminentes contra los Estados Unidos, hay acontecimientos que invitan a admitir seriamente la posibilidad de que el Pentágono haya decidido mantener el nivel de alerta en DEFCON 4.

Voy a exponerlas a continuación, si bien quisiera recordar a los lectores que la DEFCON Warning System no está afiliada a ninguna agencia gubernamental. Por tanto, el lector debe hacer sus propias evaluaciones y no confiar ciegamente en DEFCON Warning System para llevar a cabo cualquier planificación estratégica.

Corea del Norte contra Estados Unidos

Las tensiones entre Corea del Norte y los Estados Unidos están aumentando: El intercambio de amenazas es cada vez más frecuente, si bien para la mayoría de expertos ello no deja de ser más que una fanfarronada, ya que las guerras de verdad nunca se anuncian, y por el momento no ha habido movimientos militares ni parece haber señal alguna de un ataque inminente por parte de cualquiera de los dos países.

No obstante, el nivel de amenaza sigue siendo elevado y cada parte está actualmente a la defensiva, esperando algún tipo de acción por parte del bando opuesto: Estados Unidos ha amenazado con fuego y furia a Corea del Norte en caso de que su líder continúe con su plan de reducir Estados Unidos a cenizas, a lo que Corea del Norte ha respondido anunciando la puesta en marcha de planes para atacar Guam con misiles.

Si el pasado mes de Julio existían dudas de la posibilidad de que Corea del Norte hubiera logrado miniaturizar una ojiva nuclear que pudiese caber dentro de sus misiles, hoy mismo el régimen de Kim Jong-un ha detonado una bomba de hidrógeno que asegura poder montar en sus misiles intercontinentales, en teoría capaces de llegar a Estados Unidos. Esto coloca a los Estados Unidos en peligro de sufrir un ataque directo que podría ser evitado lanzando un ataque preventivo sobre Corea del Norte destruyendo su capacidad de agresión. A este respecto, China ha advertido a Corea del Norte que permanecerá neutral si ésta inicia una guerra contra los Estados Unidos.

Corea del Norte contra Corea del Sur

Corea del Sur está preparándose a la posibilidad de entrar en guerra caliente contra su vecino del norte, y su ejército ha participado a finales de agosto en unos juegos de guerra a gran escala junto con Estados Unidos, lo que indudablemente ha contribuido a elevar aún más la tensión entre ambas coreas. No obstante, desde el nombramiento del nuevo presidente el país empieza a mostrar una postura más débil que con el presidente anterior, y es probable que ello envalentone aun más a Corea del Norte, animándola a proseguir su programa nuclear.

Corea del Norte contra Japón

Recientemente, Corea del Norte lanzó un misil contra Japón, que sobrevoló su espacio aereo antes de caer en el mar. Ese lanzamiento ha reavivado las tensiones en la zona después de un período de calma relativa durante las semanas anteriores, impulsando a Japón a reconsiderar sus capacidades defensivas frente a un posible ataque de Corea del Norte, desplegando un nuevo sistema terrestre de defensa antimisiles.

China contra Estados Unidos

China viene advirtiendo a Estados Unidos que ayudará a Corea del Norte si Estados Unidos lanza un ataque preventivo contra Corea del Norte, y en fechas recientes ha probado otro nuevo misil anti-satélite que constituye una amenaza potencial para Estados Unidos, habida cuenta de su fuerte dependencia de la tecnología satelital.

Rusia con India

Rusia y la India tendrán sus primeros juegos de guerra conjunta en octubre, lo cual servirá para estrechar aún más los existentes lazos militares entre ambas potencias nucleares.

Naciones Unidas con Iran

Las Naciones Unidas se han negado a inspeccionar las instalaciones militares iraníes para cumplir con el acuerdo nuclear, afirmando que tales inspecciones son innecesarias, y es probable que ello envalentone aun más a la república islámica, animándola a acelerar su programa nuclear.

Subimos a DEFCON 4

Actualmente no existen amenazas nucleares inminentes contra los Estados Unidos, aunque hay acontecimientos que invitan a contemplar seriamente la posibilidad de que el Pentágono haya subido en esta última semana el nivel de alerta militar a DEFCON 4. Vamos a verlas a continuación:

1. Las tensiones entre Corea del Norte y los Estados Unidos están aumentando. El intercambio de amenazas es cada vez más frecuente, si bien para la mayoría de expertos ello no deja de ser más que una fanfarronada, ya que las guerras de verdad nunca se anuncian, y por el momento no ha habido movimientos militares ni parece haber señal alguna de un ataque inminente por parte de cualquiera de los dos países.

2. No obstante, el nivel de amenaza sigue siendo elevado y cada parte está actualmente a la defensiva, esperando algún tipo de acción por parte del bando opuesto. Estados Unidos ha amenazado con fuego y furia a Corea del Norte en caso de que su líder continúe con su plan de reducir Estados Unidos a cenizas, a lo que Corea del Norte ha respondido anunciando la puesta en marcha de planes para atacar Guam con misiles, atravesando el espacio aéreo de Japón.

4. La inteligencia de Estados Unidos afirma creer que Corea del Norte ha logrado miniaturizar una ojiva nuclear que puede caber dentro de sus misiles. Esto coloca a los Estados Unidos en peligro de sufrir un ataque nuclear directo, que podría ser evitado lanzando un ataque preventivo sobre Corea del Norte destruyendo su capacidad de agresión. A este respecto, China ha advertido a Corea del Norte que permanecerá neutral si Corea del Norte inicia una guerra contra los Estados Unidos, pero también ha advertido a Estados Unidos de que ayudará a Corea del Norte si Estados Unidos lanza un ataque preventivo sobre esta última.

5. Corea del Sur está preparándose a la posibilidad de entrar en guerra caliente contra su vecino del norte, y su ejército participará a finales de agosto en unos juegos de guerra a gran escala junto con Estados Unidos, lo que seguramente contribuirá a elevar aún más la tensión.

THAAD seen as capable of intercepting N.K. mid-range missile

The advanced U.S. missile defense system THAAD is believed to be capable of intercepting North Korea's intermediate-range ballistic missiles if it is deployed in South Korea, Seoul's defense chief said Friday.

North Korea claimed Thursday that it has succeeded in test-firing its mid-range missile, boasting of its capacity to hit U.S. forces in the Pacific region. "The deployment of THAAD will help South Korea's move to counter the North's missile threats," Defense Minister Han Min-koo told reporters.

The minister said that more information is needed to check THAAD's capability to intercept the North's mid-range missiles, but generally, the system is believed to be up to the task. Seoul and Washington have been discussing the potential deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery in South Korea, where about 28,500 American troops are stationed.

The allies' move is aimed at countering the North's evolving missile threats amid concerns about the technical progress of North Korea's nuclear and missile programs. On Wednesday, the North fired off what is believed to be two Musudan mid-range missiles, marking its fifth and sixth launches since April. The Musudan missile, with an estimated range of some 3,000 to 4,000 kilometers, could theoretically reach any target in Japan and fly as far as the U.S. territory of Guam.

The North's first five attempts to test-fire the missile failed, but the sixth one flew about 400 kilometers after being launched at a higher angle Wednesday. The North's latest move raises concerns about advances made in the country's nuclear and missile capabilities. Pyongyang is seeking to develop a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting targets on the U.S. mainland. South Korea's military said that it is too early to conclude the North's test was a total success, but experts said that if the North did not launch the missile at a higher angle, it could have traversed on a normal trajectory.

Han said that North Korea could test-fire an ICBM or a submarine-launched missile in a bid to show off its military prowess. "We do not rule out the possibility of an additional nuclear test by North Korea," he said. South Korea is speeding up the development of the indigenous Korea Air and Missile Defense system. A pre-emptive missile destruction system, the so-called Kill Chain, is also under development to detect and strike North Korea's missile and nuclear facilities. The North conducted its fourth nuke test in January and launched a long-range rocket in the following month, drawing international condemnation. The country is banned from using ballistic missile technology under relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions.

¿Why Japan is wary of North Korea's Musudan missiles?

North Korea has recently claimed a series of breakthroughs in its push to build a long-range nuclear missile that can strike the American mainland. If the North's claims about the sixth Musudan launch are true, it would pose a threat to the USA military base in Guam, where troops that would be sent to the Korean Peninsula if conflict broke out are based, and also possibly a nuclear threat. It explains in part North Korea's tenacious testing of the Musudan missile. (Read more)

Corea del Norte: ¿La cortina de humo?

A pesar de la insistencia de Washington de que no ha habido conversaciones formales con Seúl acerca del despliegue de un sistema defensivo contra misiles antibalísticos en la península coreana, ciertas declaraciones efectuadas recientemente parecen indicar lo contrario.

Más concretamente, el Almirante Samuel Locklear, comandante del USPACOM (United States Pacific Command) afirmó ayer jueves durante una audiencia del Senado, que las discusiones para el despliegue del THAAD en la Península Coreana se estaban llevando a cabo: "Hemos estado en las discusiones sobre la posible instalación de una batería THAAD adicional a la que está en Guam, que estaría ubicada en la Península Coreana".

Sus comentarios fueron interpretados en Seúl como la primera vez que un funcionario estadounidense reconoce de manera formal que hay conversaciones acerca de un asunto que viene siendo objeto de acalorados debates en los últimos meses. Esto contradice las declaraciones efectuadas por el secretario de Defensa Ashton Carter el pasado 10 de abril en Seúl, en referencia a este espinoso tema, que apuntaban a la inexistencia de discusiones oficiales acerca de la colocación del THAAD en Corea.

Teóricamente, la batería THAAD estaría destinada a defender a Corea del Sur de un posible ataque por parte de Corea del Norte. Dejando aparte que Corea del Sur ya cuenta con su propio escudo antimisiles para defenderse de Corea del Norte, el interés de Estados Unidos por instalar en Corea del Sur el THAAD no ha hecho más que reforzar las sospechas o los temores de quienes sospechan o temen que la amenaza norcoreana sea en realidad una mera cortina de humo para desviar la atención de la opinión pública al objeto de instalar sin problemas un escudo antimisiles a las puertas de China.

China may obtain S-400

Chinese military commentators said China may become the first foreign buyer of Russia's S-400 surface-to-air missile system, which could help the country integrate its air defense and anti-missile systems, reports Chinese national broadcaster CCTV.

Negotiations between China and Russia over the system have been difficult since China has different needs for its air defense, said military commentator Du Wenlong. The system's operational height and range, the range of its radar and the number of targets the radar tracks will all need to be adjusted. Du said the sale will not be simple weapons trade but a technology transfer that could enhance China's air defense and anti-missile capability as a whole in the future.

America's Asia Pivot policy would be severely impacted if China obtains the S-400 system, as it could cover the airspace over Taiwan and or even its eastern coasts and counter-attack US aircrafts coming from Guam and Okinawa: The system comes with powerful radar and has anti-jamming capabilities, becoming able to create a multi-layer air defense structure with three guided missiles of different ranges as well as tracking hundreds of targets and attacking up to 36 of them at once. "The S400 could affect regional security if China buys the system and decides to plant it within range of the disputed Diaoyutai island", said Paul Schwartz, a researcher for the Center for Strategic & International Studies' Russian and Eurasia Program.

Unlike the system's predecessor S-300, S-400 is compatible with weapons made by other countries and sports superior performance. The system can hit a target 10 m to 60 km above ground and intercept a ballistic missile from 30 km away. Its life span has also greatly improved to 20 years. With the S-400 system and the existing surface-to-air guided missiles Hongqi-9, S-300 and the advanced version of S-300, China will be able to build an air defense system covering long, medium and short distances, said Du. The country will also be able to integrate the system with anti- guided-missile systems. The chance of intercepting high-precision guided weapons such as guided missiles is likely to increase significantly in the future, also expanding the types of targets that China could intercept, said the commentator.

Guam Could Get a Missile Shield

Guam's strategic location just 1,500 miles South of Japan's shores make the tiny island a very valuable piece of real estate for the US military and a very enticing target for Pyongyang's missile program. (Read more)

DF-15C can be equipped as bunker buster

China’s DF-15C short-range ballistic missile, equipped with a deep-penetration warhead, would be able to damage or destroy underground command facilities in Taiwan and other security partners of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, according to The Weapon, a military magazine operated by China North Industries Group Corporation, a state-run company that manufactures military vehicles.

The Weapon reported that the DF-15C, with a warhead between 2-2.5 meters in length, has the largest warhead section compared to other missiles in the PLA’s arsenal, and can be used by the Second Artillery Corps, the PLA’s strategic missile detachment, to take out enemy command centers in a potential conflict. The Chinese missile has a range of 700 kilometers, and can be used against most targets in East Asia, including an underground hangar located at Chiashan Air Force Base in Hualian in eastern Taiwan. However, the warhead must be fitted to a DF-21 and DF-25 missile to increase its range to strike at targets such as the US base at Guam.

MDA director gives update on missile defense

Vice Adm. James Syring, director of the MDA (Missile Defense Agency, updated last week’s attendees of the Space and Missile Defense Symposium on the programs the Missile Defense Agency has in place to protect not only the war fighter, but the nation’s homeland and its allies.

Those programs are becoming more and more important, Syring said, as the threat increases. Not counting the U.S., Russia, China or NATO, roughly 6,000 ballistic missiles exist in the world today – by 2020 that number is expected to increase to 7,950. “The threat over the last couple of years has certainly escalated,” Syring said. “It has influenced a lot of the decisions we have made in missile defense to better posture ourselves against the threat.”

All one has to do is look at the news to see images of the North Koreans parading their KN-08 missiles through the streets to realize the global threat is real and imminent. Currently in the process of developing a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile and an intermediate-range ballistic missile, North Korea’s weapons could potentially reach Guam, the Aleutian Islands, and even Hawaii, according to Syring. Iran, too, is increasing its force through the deployment of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles.

While defending the U.S. and its allies may seem daunting, defense secretary Chuck Hagel outlined in March several actions being taken to counter the nation’s adversaries, which Syring expanded on during his remarks. Those priorities include:

• Deploying 14 ground-based interceptors to Fort Greely, Alaska, by fiscal year 2017
• Deploying an additional AN/TPY-2, anti-ballistic missile radar that will provide early warning and tracking of launched missiles to Japan
• Conducting environmental impact studies for a potential additional interceptor site in the continental U.S.
• Restructure the Standard Missile 3 IIB program into a common kill vehicle technology program

NK's new developments on ICBMs: A brief look

North Korea is developing road-mobile ballistic missiles capable of reaching Guam, the Aleutian Islands and potentially Hawaii, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency's director said, citing the agency's growing concern at a recent Senate Appropriations Committee's Defense Subcommittee hearing.

Road-mobile ballistic missiles are on top of North Korea's ongoing attempts to further develop its long-range ballistic missile system Taepodong-2, according to the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. Though still in development, the Taepodong-2's range could also include Guam, according to the Federation of American Scientists.

North Korea's ballistic missile threat "continues to grow as our potential adversaries are acquiring a greater number of ballistic missiles, increasing their range and making them more complex, survivable, reliable, and accurate," stated Vice Admiral J.D. Syring's July 17 testimony before the Senate subcommittee.

"The missile defense mission is becoming more challenging as potential adversaries incorporate ballistic missile defense countermeasures," Syring stated.

Missile test impact

Syring told the Senate committee of the agency's plan this year to demonstrate the ability of an integrated ballistic missile defense system to defeat two near-simultaneous ballistic missile threats.

More missile test flights scheduled for next year will include two launches of Minuteman III test flights from Vanderberg Air Force Base in California. Guam, Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia are invited to read a supplemental environmental assessment of next year's tests, in part because during the tests, missile components "will impact within the Exclusive Economic Zones of Guam, the Republic of Palau, and the Federated States of Micronesia," a July 29 Air Force announcement states.

Missile Defense

The Missile Defense Agency director told the Senate subcommittee of plans to beef up the country's comprehensive U.S. missile defense system amid U.S. lawmakers' calls for the military to run on a tight budget. "We will also deliver more interceptors for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense ... and Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense ... as we look for ways to make them more operationally effective and cost-effective," Syring testified.

About this matter, let us remember that After North Korea made specific mention of Guam when it issued threats to launch missile attacks in April and May, the Defense Department responded by sending a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, which includes truck-mounted interceptors, to Guam. The THAAD interceptors are capable of shooting down a ballistic missile both inside and just outside the atmosphere, reducing the risk of fallout from an enemy's weapons of mass destruction.

The THAAD missile defense system has had a 100-percent success rate -- intercepting 10 out of 10 tests since the program began in 2006, a Missile Defense Agency test report released earlier this month states.

Congressional report

A June 24 Congressional Research Service report on Ballistic Missile Defense in the Asia-Pacific Region mentions that, in response to North Korea's threatening actions and statements in early 2013, the Pentagon decided to deploy a THAAD system to Guam two years ahead of schedule.

"Pyongyang has declared its intent to develop a nuclear-armed ICBM, but North Korea's longer range missiles capable of reaching Guam, Alaska, or the continental United States appear unreliable and in some cases are untested," the report states.

The congressional report does raise concern of the longer term implications if North Korea's missile tests continue. A 2013 Defense Department report on military and security developments involving North Korea assesses that Pyongyang will move closer to its goal of a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile capability if it continues to test missiles and to devote scarce resources to nuclear programs, the congressional report states.

Estados Unidos: Aumenta la preocupación sobre su capacidad de respuesta frente a misiles balísticos

 

 

El Pentágono está moviendo ficha con su despliegue de radares y sistemas antimisiles en Emiratos Arabes Unidos (AN/TPY-2), Guam (THAAD), Japón (AN/TPY-2), Jordania (Patriot) y Turquía (Patriot). Este despliegue responde a las amenazas provenientes de Corea del Norte, y a la posibilidad de que se desate en cualquier momento una guerra total en Oriente Medio. La precaución de Estados Unidos no resulta exagerada en modo alguno, ya que se estima que existen más de 6.300 misiles balísticos fuera de control norteamericano, ruso o chino, cifra que según la MDA podría llegar a las 8.000 unidades para el año 2020.