miércoles, 17 de mayo de 2017

Iran, North Korea ... ¿Wag the Dog?

As the readers of this blog already know, I usually devote little attention to issues not directly related to the technological development of missiles. Now, in the last weeks have been raised certain authoritative voices, exposing a disturbing hypothesis that I will expose in this post, because I consider it worthy of attention.

Russia feels seriously threatened
During the last International Security Conference held in Moscow late last month, Lieutenant General Viktor Poznihir, representing the Russian armed forces, publicly stated that, under certain moves being made by the United States, the conclusion is that Washington is preparing a first nuclear attack against Russia. To these public declarations you can access through the following links:

And as far as we know, no voice has been raised from the United States categorically denouncing Lieutenant General Poznihir. ¿Do not you find this a bit unsettling? ¿Have you even read any comment in this regard in the mass media? None of this has appeared on CNN, the New York Times, the Washington Post, or any other Western media. ¿Do not you find it a bit strange that the United States is so silent?

China feels seriously threatened
Like Russia, China has also publicly shown its fear, or rather its conviction, that the United States is preparing a first nuclear attack against that great nation. Nor has the United States done even the slightest attempt to deny China. ¿Why? ¿Do not you think that's a little suspicious?

¿Will China and Russia sit and wait the missiles coming?
¿What would you do if you had the conviction that someone wants to destroy your family? ¿Would you wait to see what happens... and then decide the degree of reaction... or would you prefer to be proactive, trying to neutralize the potential aggressor? Everyone is free to think and act as he prefers, but as far as Russia is concerned, the thinking of Vladimir Putin is clear:

"Streets of Leningrad taught me one thing - if fight is inevitable, throw the first punch"

Never in history has the current situation been given
The situation we have reached is a situation that is not comparable with any previous situation: up to date, never two military superpowers have ever agreed in their conviction that a nuclear attack by surprise was being prepared, against both, by a third military superpower. This absence of precedents prevents us from supposing nor anticipating what will be the course of events. And this is serious, because when you convince two military superpowers that you are getting ready to destroy them, you must contemplate the possibility that these military superpowers may try to destroy you first. It is that simple, and in this situation we are immersed: For China and Russia, the common threat is called United States. Both China and Russia must choose if they want to stay and watch the missiles approaching, or if they want to attack the United States by all means at their fingertips. It is that simple and so sad, but, unfortunately for all, this is the current situation:

¿What does the United States win with a surprise attack?
Faced with the hypothesis raised, the million dollar question arises: ¿Who is interested in starting a war in which no one is going to win? Again, we return to the previous point: The present situation is no longer in any way of nuclear balance, as it used to be in past decades. The current situation is very simple: United States has gradually surrounded China and Russia with systems conceived in principle to neutralize missiles from Iran and North Korea, but... both Russia and China are convinced that Iran and North Korea were nothing more than mere "smoke curtains" to prevent public opinion from perceiving the true purpose of such defensive systems: to neutralize any response from either China or Russia in case of a nuclear attack from the United States. Both China and Russia have concluded that a first and simultaneous surprise nuclear attack against both China and Russia would literally leave both nations out of combat, unable to counter-strike. But even if they could launch any sort of counter-strike with ICBMs, the defensive systems deployed on Europe (mainly Poland, Romania and Spain), on Asia Pacific (mainly South Korea, Japan and Australia) and on the west coast of the United States, would neutralize any ICBM directed against the United States, leaving literally intact that nation. Moreover: A counter-attack from China and/or Russia would serve only as an excuse for a second nuclear hit. ¿Result? Total victory of the United States, total defeat of China and Russia. ¿What can we expect now?

Of course, Vladimir Putin wants to believe that there is still a gate for hoping the attack will not occur, but his hope is becoming less likely: Last week, the commander of US forces deployed in Europe has asked more money from the US Congress United, in order to "counter a resurgent Russia":

Now compare the previous video, with the next one, and draw your own conclusions:

¿Will there be collateral damages?
If at the end this cold war becomes hot war, several nations are in the spotlight and could be annihilated: Wars are known as they begin, but not how they end. In case of a total war, the consequences will be suffered firstly by China and Russia, and secondly by the US allies. These includes all NATO countries (firstly Spain, Poland and Romania) which are already in the crosshairs of the Russian missiles; but also U.S. allies in Asia Pacific (mainly South Korea, Japan and Australia) which are in the crosshairs of the Chinese missiles. ¿What will happen? ¿Who knows? 

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