India has started a program focused to expand the missile defense to shield large parts of the country that, in the oppinion of many analysts, for some reasons may be counter-productive to maintain the peace in the region. Let us see briefly why.
India
- Development of a pan-national missile interception capability is beyond India’s economic means, and for that reason may ballast dramatically the economy of the country.
Pakistan
- Pakistan’s inclinations to pursue low intensity conflicts under the shield of its nuclear arsenal have made India extremely uncomfortable with the strategic situation in the region.
- Many in Delhi hope missile defense will provide India a space for limited wars against Pakistan, bearing in mind the fear that there could be an unintended launch of a ballistic missile, especially given Pakistan’s vacillation between being ruled by a trigger happy military and being overrun by jihadi extremists.
- However, Pakistan is acutely sensitive to any perceived military edge, current or future, that India may be developing.
- It means in fact that even a limited fielding of a partly unproven Indian ballistic missile defense capability (as DRDO is actually planning) could be enough to compel Pakistan to grow its nuclear arsenal – with all the potential dangers that this entails.
China
- Although DRDO’s capabilities are far from proven when pitted against Chinese ICBMs, such as the DF-41, a nationwide BMD system could create in China the perception that India it is preparing for a first strike; a perception which may be anything except good.
- At a time when India and China are making a renewed effort to secure a long-term agreement on the status of their borders, BMD developments could therefore worsen the trajectory of their relationship, all while offering India uncertain returns.
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